If Fantino Wins, Then What? How Long Will The Honeymoon Last?

All I had been noticing from the pundits, columnists and bloggers was if Fantino would win Vaughan by-election tomorrow, it would be a disaster for the Liberals. That this could ruin Iggy’s leadership. Hell,  Jim Travers paints a picture of a Harpercon momentum on a roll taking advantage of the beleaguered Liberal party and calling an election early this winter. I must admit, this has me worried as well.

However, I caught Warren Kinsella’s column today. Yeah,  I know, he lacks credibility for me,  these days, especially going to the new Fox News North and all to be the “token”.  However, he raised a few interesting points and some questions we perhaps should be asking.

I will spare you Kinsella’s glowing review of the man. Fantino is much too repulsive for that.

For openers, after a long and arguably (depending who one asks and how one defines success, of course) successful career in law enforcement, being recently retired with no doubt a nice fat pension in the six figures and pushing 70, why would he want a second career in politics in a minority government?  It’s easy to see why he would refuse the Liberals when they came calling; being in opposition and not likely to win an election anytime soon, they can’t offer him anything substantial.

Master Steve, on the other hand, could offer him a cabinet post and rumour has it that if Fantino wins, he’s going straight to cabinet.  Kinsella is of that belief as well:

Now, has Fantino been offered a cabinet spot by Prime Minister Stephen Harper as an incentive to run? Of course. It’s unlikely to be in writing, but you can bet three demerit points that Fantino wouldn’t be a candidate if he hadn’t been the recipient of a highly suggestive nod and a wink.

Ok, then, so, exactly what ministry would he be taking over? Justice? Even a Harpercon Justice Puppet would require a law degree. Fantino doesn’t appear to have one.  Environment?  I don’t think that would be enough a motivation for him to uproot to Ottawa at such a late stage in his life. Public Security?  Quite possibly as Fantino’s entire working life was in law enforcement.  John Ibbitson had mentioned the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle in the new year in light of Jim Prentice’s departure and the potential departure of Petey McKay and prepare for an upcoming election.   Does this mean Super Vic Toews, the good ol’  Harpercon  socon be reshuffled to accommodate Fantino?

Then, as Kinsella muses,

it’s a minority government, after all — something that isn’t highly conducive to long-term job security. Fantino could arrive in Ottawa in a few weeks time, and then be back on the hustings a few weeks later. Perpetual campaigning is not fun when you’re nearly 70.

Indeed.  Especially in this day and age, when it seems that Master Steve and his minions always seem to be in a permanent state of campaigning.  Fantino may well be popular in Vaughan–for now, but it isn’t, by far, a Harpercon stronghold; certainly not after the Liberals held it for 22 years.  Anything can happen between now and the next election.  Maybe Tony Genco won’t even run the next time. Maybe the Liberals may find someone with better standing in Vaughan. He could easily tire of playing that game.

Then, the most important question, how long will this honeymoon last?  After spending nearly two decades in management, having been was the Commissioner of the Ontario Provincial Police from 2006 to 2010. He was previously Toronto’s Chief of Police from 2000 to 2005, and Ontario’s Commissioner of Emergency Management from 2005 until 2006. He has also served as chief of police of London, Ontariofrom 1991 to 1998, and of York Region from 1998 until 2000, he is used to running the show.  With his views on the charter of rights being  ”for criminals and hell’s angels” and his bullying ways, he is also accustomed to doing things his own way.   Joining the Harpercon puppet show would surely be a culture shock for him.

Fantino isn’t the kind of guy who will accept PMO micromanagement with equanimity, either. Can you picture Fantino’s reaction when a PMO minion rings him up to declare that a certain press release can’t go out, or that he is no longer permitted to go on a trip somewhere? Ha!

Indeed.  How long would it take before Master Steve and Robocop lock horns?  Fantino views on lawn order may well be in sync with Master Steve, but can anyone really see an arrogant bully like Fantino  go back to being a subordinate at his age, set in his ways,  after nearly 20 years of management?  Remember, Fantino doesn’t need this job.  I’m with you, Mr. Kinsella, I don’t see it neither. He would learn that being a Harpercon cabinet minister is nothing more than a puppet. Zero power that Robocop Fantino seems to enjoy oh so much.

A Fantino win would indeed make it a bumpy ride for the Liberals and for Iggy, but, it is possible they could get Vaughan back. Something tells me Fantino won’t be sticking around long.

You could read Kinsella’s article here; caution, his glowing review of Fantino is shameless.