Stevie Harper Will Never Leave, At Least, Not Until Next Election

Many journos, pundits, and journos are speculating as to whether or not ol’ Stevie Spiteful will leave sooner rather than later. Hell, even Chantal Hebert, who announced in her last column for the Toronto Star that she is taking a summer leave of absence to write book, announced that she made arrangements with her editors that she could write a column early should news be worthy…such as the speculated pre-mature departure of Stevie Spiteful .

When I discussed a summer book leave with my editors earlier this spring, we agreed that l would come back to the column front early if circumstances warranted. Back then I thought I was setting the bar safely high when I used Harper’s resignation as an example of a such a circumstance.

On Power Play this week and on today’s Question Period, the general belief is that Stevie will leave sooner rather than later.  Others have been speculating this as well.

First, let me start off by saying I don’t believe it for one minute. At least, not until the 2015 election if he gets anything less than a decisive majority, which, despite his recent scandals and all the shit hitting the fan,  I firmly believe this is still possible.

First off, as Gerry Nichols has said often on political shows, Stevie’s campaign machine will likely spin how they’re great masters of the economy. Yes, despite the 3.1B$ gone missing. No one in the media has been spending much time with that and it appears to be forgotten. The opposition hasn’t really done all that much getting at it neither. It would’ve been the one thing to hammer Harper, who preaches the sanctity of the economy and he and his merry band of thieves are the masters of of it.  It was a missed opportunity.  As Nichols put it, the campaign would be simple, who would you rather have managing the economy?  An experienced drama teacher or a raging soshalist or us, the experienced crew?

It will work.  It will work because most Canadians, as I’ve mentioned are shallow and don’t pay much attention to what is going on politically. Also, despite the fact that our EI preniums have gone up and less likely to be able to file a claim should we need to,  folks believe that their taxes have gone down.   It’s not true, but hell, remember  how Americans tea-partiers and their friends would all gather in Washington DC  for Glenn Beck’s silly rallies. When folks took videos and asked those demonstrators why they didn’t like President Obama, they, for the most part, said they were “being taxed to death” or “taxing us like crazy”, when in reality, Bill Maher punched holes in that on his show, saying that taxes under Obama had actually remained the same as before he took office and in some cases, actually went down. I mean, these fools never check their pay stubs or their tax returns they sign?  Guess not. An example how misinformation is more often than not, more powerful than the truth, which isn’t so sexy or play to the right’s narrative much of the time?

Given that many feel their taxes are lower, rightly or wrongly, it would be impossible for the Liberals or the NDP to campaign on higher taxes which  will become a necessity in the coming years.  Yes, even though the Harpercons would sneak them in higher taxes,  folks will believe the contrary.

Most Canadians still actually believe in trickle down.  Just listen to a call-in talk radio show to find this out.  They believe that low corporate taxes keep jobs here and actually increase jobs, though,  the contrary has been happening. Oh sure, the Harpercons can brag about the new jobs that were created in May, but no one asks him and his band of flunkies the pointed questions, “What kind of jobs?”  Macjobs at Timmy Horton’s?  Temporary foreign workers taking Canadian jobs? (Yet another thing the opposition hasn’t hammered Stevie hard enough, I find) Full-time or part-time? Temporary contracts?  It is obvious that Ontario never recovered from the loss of manufacturing jobs, nor has Quebec ever recouped in forestry jobs or the needletrade which once thrived in Montreal.   Yes, the journos and Opposition have failed us in this regard as well.

Next, boys ‘n’ girls, one only has to look back at the 2011 election to understand that Harper can knock over a liquor store and sell his grandmother around the corner for 25 cents, and folks will still think he’s just oh so dreamy.  As we’ve seen countless times, anything goes, as long as you’re a conservative.  In fact, many are still playing the ADSCAM card, which still seems to win the argument for many.

Bevie Oda doctored documents inserting the hand scrawled ^Not in Kairos funding documents yet she still won in her Durham riding handily. She kept her cabinet post without anyone blinking.  The Harpercons were found in contempt of parliament–the first time in history a government has been found that way.  They were rewarded with a majority.  Tugboat Tony Clement somehow misappriates 50M$ that was supposed to go to border security and spends it on Gazebos, glow sticks and other such nonsense in his own riding. He gets a plum post as president of the treasury.  Why should recent scandals like senategate and robogate be any different?

Also, despite polls saying the contrary, as Warren Kinsella pointed out recently ,  the polls cant’ really be relied upon, especially now that they have gotten election predictions dead wrong in recent years.  As he points out, the only numbers that count is the number of seats each opposition party must gain in 2015.  So far, especially the next election, where there will be 30 new seats and a redrawn electoral map which Stevie had surely a strong  gerrymandering hand in redrawing.

Really boys ‘n’ girls, Brent Rathgeber leaving Harpercon reindeer games in a huff is not really news. He’s whiny and complaining that the Harpercons are simply not conservative enough. Big deal. His 15 minutes of fame are almost up. Plus, Petey Goldring, who was recently acquitted of charges of  not complying with a breathalizer, was immediately asked back by Stevie and he has rejoined the Harpercon fold.  So the seat count remains the same.  Ra Ra War Warawa may be full of praise for his buddy Brent, but I haven’t seen any hint of him leaving, have you?  He, like the rest of the Harpercons, know which side their bread is buttered.  Even as backbenchers, they still have more privileges than if they sat in the nosebleed section in the House of Commons as independents.

Yes, those of us who watched Question Period this morning, probably heard Craig Oliver saying something along the lines of  remember, Brian Mulroney kept saying he wouldn’t leave and he did.  However, comparing Lyin’ Brian Mulroney to Stevie Spiteful is like comparing apples and oranges.   Stevie Spiteful, much to the chagrin of progressives like myself, has pretty much done all he has set out to do with his omnibus bills.  Dumb on crime was done.  Gun registry is scrapped.  He stripped labour standards and crippled unions with the help of his flunkie, Lisa “I’m too sexy for the proletariat” Raitt. And more importanly to many, those damned trains run on time.

In Mulroney’s case, he didn’t get much done with the exception of NAFTA and privatiziing crown corporations. His main campaign platform, to repatriate Quebec into the constitutional fold,  was a failure, not once but twice. His party splintered. Two parties were created from that discontent: Lucien Bouchard and the Bloc Quebecois and before then, ol’ Preston Manning and Reform, the faction Stevie is from, along with potential leadership aspirant, Jason KKKenney.

The country is in economic crisis when Mulroney left office as was his party.  Yes, the country is in an even bigger deficit than Mulroney left it, but, folks believe Stevie is some economic super man.

Yeah, yeah, yeah! Petey MacKay is threatening yet again to leave if things at the upcoming Harpercon Hootenanny in Calgary don’t go his way.  Not the first time. Promises! Promises!   Not the first time. His political career is pretty much finished anyway. Does anyone seriously consider him for Stevie’s successor? Not after the whole David Orchard betrayal.  Besides, I think he likes being a thorn in Stevie’s side. I think he continuously enjoys the reminder that he is largely the reason that Stevie became Prime minister.  I suspect the only way Petey would leave is is Stevie relegates him to the backbenches or a smaller portfolio in the upcoming cabinet shuffle.

There is also Stevie’s humongous ego. It won’t allow him to give up right away or anytime soon. The party is still raising money hand over fist and out fundraising both the Liberals and the NDP.  Again, numbers that actually count. Yes, that story I linked to was dated before senategate hit the fan, but stories were emerging.  He has the seats.  He may well lose a few in 2015, but not enough.  Remember those newly gerrymandered seats coming up.

More importanly, as Lawrence Martin in his book, Harperland , Stevie Spiteful has always had luck on his side, more specifically, the timing of certain events. Stevie is likely counting on the channel to be changed yet again. Given that summer vacation for the government is coming up soon and it is the bbq  and vacation season, that shouldn’t be hard to do.  He’ll likely prorogue again if he doesn’t have another way out. Why not? Proroguation worked for him in the past. Why not now?  And who knows? Perhaps another tsunami or natural disaster in some part of the world, where Stevie will rush to for expensive photo ops, posing as some Captain Canada super man, just like he did with the Haiti earthquake.

Also,  Harper still has a few dragons to slay. He may have given up on La Belle Province to gain votes, but has he given up on the riding of MOunt-Royal? One of the few ridings, I understand, has been left untouched by the gerrymandering games.  Papa Trudeau’s old riding.   I have read that it is not likely that Irwin Cotler will run again.  Justin Trudeau, as well as Thomas Mulcair, if he wants another crack at this, will need to find star candidates. Preferably candidates who can play “I love Israel more than you” game, as it seems to be a big hit over there.   Who knows? Perhaps Stevie will be successful at a second attempt to recruit Robert Libman.

The other dragon, which may prove to be a yelping puppy if the Trudeau camp doesn’t learn to get nasty and play in the gutter with the Harpercons to beat them (Yes, Justin, we really do love attack ads! They’re our guilty pleasure, just ask Chrissie Clark).  Stevie’s ego won’t be fulfilled until he has beaten a Trudeau.  The attack ads are being written in his war room.  I’m sure there are more surprises to come.  Even if Stevie only ekes out a minority, to him, it will still be a major accomplishment. Remember, the Liberal win in the Labrador by-election was a “Liberal loss” according to Harpercon flunkie, Fred Delorey. How many bought it? Probably more than I would care to know.  Oh, sure, he’ll be kicked out the party door, but it won’t be an easy fight and Harper’s world would be well if he beat Justin Trudeau.

Unlike what many say, though, I do believe that back roomers are probably looking to recruit new leadership candidates.  However, it will be an uphill climb,  as the party became pretty much the one man Stevie show, hell, the Canadian government was even rebranded to his name. It will be difficult to not identify the Cons with Stevie Spiteful.

CORRECTION:  I meant 3.1 B $ and not 3.1M$ as originally stated in the post. Thanks to commenter Torontonian for pointing this out.