Will There or Will There Not Be an Election This Fall? Who Would Want It, If Anyone At All?

Both EKOS and the usually Harpercon friendly Ipsos-Reid polls have Harpercon numbers slipping and those of the Liberals rising somewhat bringing them to a near tie with, of course, the Harpercons  hanging on to a slight advantage.  If Steve was really planning to get an election off the ground this fall, his plans for that backfired and now is backing off this idea. In fact, even his rabid pit-bull, John Baird, Steve’s newly minted Government house leader called for more cooperation with the opposition parties on TV last week. Well, logically, every opposition party should come out and say too little too late for that, except their polling numbers don’t permit them to do so.

Frank Graves of EKOS is of the opinion, that in spite of the Liberals’ low numbers, they may well attempt to trigger an election, while John Wright of Ipsos Reid disagrees:

Mr. Wright does not believe there will be an election any time soon because no one can win a majority government at this time. “The reality is that if everybody knows that all you’re going to get is a minority you can take your time.”

The Bloc is just too strong in Quebec to free up seats necessary for either the Conservatives or Liberals to form a majority government, Mr. Wright added.

But Mr. Graves has a different take: “Wow! To be blunt, I was concerned about our poll, as it came in the summer, and it was a pretty abrupt shift,” he told The Globe on Tuesday morning.

“The Ipsos poll suggests that our poll did catch a major shift in voter sentiments. What is remarkable about this shift is that it comes in the midst of the summer, a period when the public are typically blissfully unconcerned with politics. This might suggest that the negative effects of the census decision on the government may be muted to this point.”

If this is true, he said, the chances of a fall election “have now shifted to more likely than not.”

And that is because the opposition could sense that this “new shift for the PM” could represent a “critical mass of frustration within the electorate and in particular a growing fatigue amongst the more educated portion.”

Tricky; very tricky indeed and one where the opposition, particularly the Liberals must tread carefully, given their poll numbers and what happened last year when Iggy attempted to drop the gauntlet and act, well, oppositional. Remember when Iggy said that he was no longer going to be supporting the Harpercons last September? All the Timmy Hortons’ Crowd crying and screaming “I don’t wanna go to the polling stations again!”   Steve launched a poison pill in a ways and means motion that Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe ended up swallowing and Canada was saved from a Harpercon majority.  And remember, Stevie spiteful’s numbers shot up well within majority territory and Iggy’s plummeted.

In fact, since then, there would be a number of times Stevie spiteful’s polling numbers from any given polling firm would hover around majority territory, thus, those who blame the strong presence of the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec for preventing a majority government for either party; their argument falls right there. Majorities are still possible, in spite of the heavy Bloc presence in Quebec. It just simply means that they have to fight harder in Ontario and British Columbia.

What is scary is that some polls in the past year has shown that Canadians want a majority government and more than likely, if they believe one is not possible, good ol’ Canadian trademark apathy will take hold yet again and stay away from the polls, which does contribute to a Harpercon majority as well. It worked for Jean Charest and his Liberals in the Quebec election in 2008. Low turn out largely contributed to his majority.

Iggy could well still be gun shy from last September’s reaction to his dropping the gauntlet.  A few ridings still need candidates. A friend, Pascal Zamprelli is running for the nomination in Jeanne Le Ber in the south west of Montreal, currently held by the Bloc. Of course, Peter Milliken’s will also need to be filled amongst others. They’re going to need to hurry up to fill those nominations.

I believe Steve will also put out a budget this fall. What will he do? Will he attempt to pull the per vote subsidy for political parties again? Will he play Santa Clause? Or will he attempt another hard shift to the right yet again? Perhaps a combination of all of the above, which I find most likely, given his precedent (hello Bill c-9); those poison pills Steve is so well known to serve up.  A frightening thought.

Also, there is the NDP, who more often than not, will do just the opposite of whatever the Liberals do.  If the Liberals support the Harpercons, the NDP go against it and vice-versa.  And of course, the Bloc continue doing their own thing if it plays to the agenda of Quebec’s good according to the vision of Gilles Duceppe or to Quebec sovereignty which is now back on the front burner these days.

Iggy would most certainly want to wait until he thinks Canadians would be willing to vote out the Harpercons; to wait for his numbers to go up further.  His bus tour helped, I think.  Yes, there were critics who felt he was not being himself. But I think those are the same people who may have the ridiculous notion that Iggy won’t even open his front door to pick up the newspaper without putting on a suit and tie first. Whether or not he was himself (let’s face it; on some level, every politician plays a role; uses some form of method acting); he did something every politician should do and that is, going out in the country he wishes to govern and meet the people; real people and to hear their concerns and questions. I’m sure it must have helped him, his party and his confidence on some level, but I don’t think it’s enough for him to want to trigger an election by voting against whatever Stevie spiteful is cooking up next.

Then, there is Stevie spiteful, himself.  If there is no election, he and his flunkies have more time to sell his little utopia with no StatsCan; no census.  Stevie is down right now, but he has a propensity for bouncing back as he has demonstrated in the past.   This makes holding off a federal election a crap shoot. One Stevie could probably win given his numbers are still, however slightly, in his favor.

Progressives out there, whether you’re NDP or Liberal supporters, it’s time for us to take action. Write your MPs (provided of course, you’re not living in Harpercon riding; if so, then try to write the NDP and Liberal candidates if you know who they are; if there are candidates at this time; or write both Iggy and Jack Layton).     Now is the time to vote Steve out of office, or at the very least, reduce his minority significantly.  If Steve needs two or even all three parties to get anything through instead of just one party right now, not only is Steve’s power significantly reduced, but the games of  one opposition party doing something simply because another one isn’t would perhaps cease; it’s not helpful.

Many bitch and moan when the Liberals have propped up the Harpercons, but no one supported them neither, their polling numbers had reflected that. Iggy says that Canadians don’t want an election. When we hear the Timmy’s crowd screaming and whining about going to the polls, it’s hard to ignore.  They are loud, particularly about protecting their own apathy as that whole demonstration against prorogation last winter proved.

So, the only way for us to prove to both Iggy and Jack that we do indeed want an election sooner than later is to write them and their MPs and if we can find their candidate’s emails or find them on Facebook, Twitter or another social networking site to let them know this; to urge them to cooperate with one another (I did say cooperate not coalition); not that usual game where Jack goes and does the opposite of what the Liberals do; but working together toward a common good and vote to bring down whatever bill, motion or budget (most likely this Fall) Steve brings to the table, regardless of how much good there will be in it, because as we all know, there will be poison pills packed into them.  It is time for us to take action.

The group, Canadians Rallying to Unseat Harper is still coming up with ads and raising funds to put these ads in the newspapers.  Keep up the good work!

Catch 22 is also working at unseating Harpercon MPs.

Apathy doesn’t cut it. Waiting for Iggy to go or waiting for better candidates isn’t going to cut it.  Time is a luxury we don’t have and now is our window of opportunity.   Let your MPs know you want an election, NOW!