All That Coalition Talk —Again, Damned if They Do: Damned if They Don’t.

It appears that this will be the topic of conversation this summer along with the freedom flotilla.

Personally, I still think the left of center parties should merge outright, but sadly, as time goes further along and the NDP keeps sniping at the Liberals, I don’t see that happening anytime soon. Nor a coalition for that matter.

Another thing the staunch promoters of coalition are overlooking is that bill c-391 which the Liberals will be whipped into voting against and Layton still on the fence without even a proposed modification to the Long Gun Registry like Iggy did. It looks like Layton won’t be whipping his MPs and if that’s the case, I think the fate of that coalition will have been sealed.

Even polls being taken to decide who would best lead such a coalition or merger of the NDP and the Liberals. One thing is certain though, it seems most are of the agreement that the Bloc Quebecois should not be included this time around. That’s ok, with the active push for Quebec sovereignty these days, I don’t think Gilles Duceppe is interested in former any kind of long term agreement with federalist parties.

Jeff Jedras of BC er in Toronto, I think he has the best idea to date. If only these parties actually paid attention.

One serious problem to a coalition is putting this together before an election which would put off many of the majority centrists and send them to Steve’s camp or do they do it after an election which, after December 2008, got such a violent response. Would they warm up to the idea without the Bloc? Or without Stephane Dion at the helm? Maybe, but is that a chance we wish to take?

Another problem will always be the Timmy’s crowd; Jane and Joe Centrist who are content to swallow the kool-aid du jour. As I have pointed out many times before, they don’t understand our parliamentary system. They are content to remain this way.  When they vote, their intent is to vote for the party their favourite leader is running regardless who the MP representing their riding may be. We could tell them differently, but it won’t matter. Most vote with the aim of seeing their favourite leader as PM. No matter how a coalition would be presented, they would still see it as undemocratic.

As for the merger, well,  many more could easily switch to Harpercon camp; remember, like in the U.S., soshalism is a very dirty and scary word  here in Canada.

There would also be quite a bit of turn around from both the Liberals and the NDP should they either merge or form a coalition. Many will either cross to the Harpercons or sit as independents or leave politics. The latter being the lesser of the evils. As it is, on the whole, no proposed merger or coalition under any leader would produce an overwhelming majority as the parties are now. Needless to say, it wouldn’t survive the bloodshed from both parties.

I agree with Jeff on this one. Every party campaign for themselves and have candidates running in every riding as they usually do, but never flat out state no coalition or agreement during the election campaigns.  That would indeed insult the intelligence of voters. They hear those rumours and many rumours in politics end up being true in some form or another.  The voters will no doubt have that ‘will they or won’t they’ scenario on their minds at the ballot box.

However, as I’ve stated above, it will largely depend on how that whole c-391 debacle ends.

This is indeed one of those Damned if they do; damned if they don’t kind of moments.  While I agree with Jeff’s piece above, allowing the status quo to continue really does up the risk for a Harpercon majority.  Yesterday, Chantal Hebert writes that history is repeating itself. She makes the paralell between Layton’s surge in popularity and the election result of 1988.   I fear that she could be right on this one.

NDP strategists have apparently concluded that it is time to move in for the kill against a weakened Liberal party. Last weekend, Layton dared Ignatieff to try to force the government to split the budget bill before it is allowed to pass and Harper’s minority regime is allowed to survive.

To position the NDP as the only effective national opposition vehicle to the Conservatives, Layton is drawing new, deeper lines in the Liberal/NDP sand.

As in 1988, the next federal campaign and the potential advent of a Conservative majority could be a watershed for the country.

On this, the NDP and the Liberals are in agreement. But as in the days of the free trade debate it does seem it is all they will agree on between now and the next campaign.

Broadbent’s 1988 campaign was both his finest and his most counter-productive hour. A remake is now in the works.

The truth is, Jack doesn’t seem to care and in fact, would go to bed with the Harpercons. It came close once upon a time. Jack really seemed to have no problem going to bed with Steve in order to oust Paul Martin. He could easily do it again.His party has noticeably been turning rightward themselves as of late.

Jack smells power getting closer to his finger tips. And he obviously doesn’t care if Steve gets his majority. He might even help them get that majority by going to bed with him.

If the Liberals were smart; here’s what they could hammer at Steve and at Jack. They could ask them continuously if they would go to bed with each other sometime down the road following the next election or even sometime before. Curious to see how Steve and his flunkies like Andrew and Dimitri spin this one. They could bring back that letter Steve wrote to then GG Adrienne Clarkson.

The added bonus is that it does force Jack to come clean with his intentions.   His party ideals or a crack at cabinet?

Coalitions and mergers are Steve’s biggest fear. With his need for only one party to keep him afloat on a case by case basis, he has succeeded in his divide and conquer games with the opposition parties.  Clearly, these are no longer the days of Trudeau and Broadbent where they were able to find common ground and work together with some kind of arrangement.

Make no mistake, Jack’s little challenge to Iggy regarding Bill c-9 was not about uniting the opposition against Steve during a time Steve would least like an election. No, that was about Jack trying to score again. Steve’s always willing and ready for an election, even during G8/G20 season.

Lastly, time to stop the  fantasizing about coalitions/mergers  or new Liberal leaders to take over. We are not doing ourselves any favours like this. The best thing is to really look at reality. Reality is that the NDP and the Liberals are pitted against each other more and more and will get worse if Jack doesn’t help scrap Bill C-391.

Even if the NDP were to achieve opposition party status; that would more than likely mean a Harpercon majority.

Another reality is Iggy is the Liberal leader and he ain’t goin’ until he loses an election, but that unfortunately means Steve wins once again and this time, could well be a majority.  The Timmy’s crowd want a majority and will welcome a totalitarian theocracy if it means not interrupting time with Timmy to go to the polls.

To whine about two undesirable choices  or lesser of the two evils solves nothing.  Steve has proven to be and continues to prove that he is a Prime minister like nothing we’ve ever seen.

Yes, unfortunately, corporations are behind the political parties; nothing anyone can do about that for the time being.  There are many people would like to see changed, but honestly, we have lived without things like ‘proportional’ representation for years; we’ll survive again. Perhaps something to work on at a later time, but none of these reforms many want to see  will ever see the light of day  with a Harpercon majority; guaranteed.

It is also high time we stopped comparing ourselves to Britain.  Apples and oranges. Also, it seems that our center is further to the right than Britain’s is. We’re too Americanized.