Much Talk Over Latest Leger Poll on Quebec Election. Too Bad It’s More Than Likely About Nothing

A recent poll had come out putting Dr. Phil’s Liberals and Pauline Marois’s PQ virtually neck and neck with the CAQ support slipping.  Many of the columnists and pundits have claimed, for the most part, that this poll is the result of Marois and Peladeau jr sovereignty referendum talk.  There are some that say that perhaps Peleadeau Jr. has not been yielding the desired effects the PQ hoped it would.

Then again, many of these same people were predicting and probably still predict that Peladeau Jr will help the PQ take away Quebec City area votes from CAQ because of their love of hockey and they, like Quebec City mayor Regis Labeaume, still believe that NHL boss Gary Bettman will send a team back to Quebec City.  Yes, hope springs eternal for the die hard hockey fan.  However, it would appear that perhaps most Quebecers, including those in and around the Quebec City area have probably long since given up on a repatriation of the Quebec Nordiques.  After all, Gary Bettman has pretty much ruled that out awhile ago.  If Labeaume and his friends weren’t listening, certainly many others were.

Besides, the latest Leger Marketing polls indicate that CAQ is losing ground in the Quebec City area to the Liberals, not PQ. Though, it should be noted that the Charest Liberals did agree to pay 200Million$ for that arena in Quebec City for Peladeau jr.

I’ll play. For openers, if one looks at Leger Marketing’s numbers, it would make no sense that the Liberals’ bump in the polls was due to referendum talk.  After all, Dr. Phil started talking about getting Quebec into the constitution as well.   Moreover, if referendum / constitution talk were why the Liberals went up in the polls, shouldn’t their numbers have risen at the expense of the Parti Quebecois?  That does not appear to be the case:

Les appuis au PQ n’ont pas bougé depuis le dernier sondage Léger, il y a une semaine. La légère remontée du PLQ se fait au détriment de la CAQ de François Legault, qui a perdu quatre points chez les électeurs francophones. Dans ce segment crucial de l’électorat québécois — parce que les anglophones se trouvent surtout dans l’ouest de Montréal et en Outaouais —, le PQ domine à 44 %, suivi du PLQ à 27 % et de la CAQ à 15 %.

Basically, as I’ve mentioned above,  Liberals are gaining at the expense of CAQ particularly around the Quebec City area.  The PQ’s numbers have pretty much remained the same since Leger’s last poll last week.  PQ still appears to dominate amongst Francophones in other regions of la belle province.

When I first saw the polling numbers last night, I thought that perhaps Peladeau Jr was simply not producing the PQ’s desired effect.  However,  this morning, I saw that in that same poll, the popularity or lack thereof Peladeau Jr is pretty much split evenly.

Opinion on Peladeau was the strongest, with 42 per cent saying they had a favourable view of the former president and CEO of Quebecor while 40 per cent said they had a negative opinion of him.

In fact, the Liberals’ ‘star’ candidate, Dr. Gaetan Barrette, failed CAQ candidate in Terrebonne last election appears to be far less liked than Junior.

Only 16 per cent of those polled said they had a positive opinion on the doctor-turned-politician.

Barrette is running in the Montreal South Shore riding of La Piniere against former Liberal now independent incumbent, Fatima Houda-Pepin.

What’s interesting is that so many don’t seem to be too disturbed over Junior insisting on keeping his Quebecor shares along with his other conflict of interest issues.  In fact, regarding voters’ issues, this poll puts corruption in fourth place at 49%.

À l’inverse, les enjeux les plus importants sont l’économie et la création d’emplois (pour 85 % des répondants), la santé (84 %), les finances publiques (77 %), l’éducation (73 %) et la corruption (49 %).

So, what is the explanation for the Liberals’ sudden bump?

We can speculate all we want, but I think, as usual, this poll is erroneous.  No more: no less.

Ce coup de sonde de Léger a été effectué auprès de 1205 répondants, de mardi à jeudi de cette semaine. L’enquête est non probabiliste, puisqu’elle a été menée sur Internet.

The poll was taken over the internet and as everyone should know by now, polls taken online are unreliable because those people cannot be counted on to actually show up at the polls on election day.  I think the media is making a big deal out of basically nothing.  As we’ve often hear, the only poll that counts is on election day.

Even if this poll had any accuracy, it still shows a tight race between the PQ and the Liberals and neither are in majority territory, which I think is realistic. It’s what I have been predicting–another minority government, most likely, PQ.

Dr. Phil and his people simply don’t have a way of connecting with voters and it is not likely he will find a way to do so.  I watched the Liberals’ campaign ad, which in contrast of Marois’s cold and grey visuals, actually has colour and looks diverse, except I couldn’t figure out what his message was. The usual tripe of how we must create wealth in order to create jobs. Yeah, right. Basic Economics 101: Wealth doesn’t create jobs; consumer need does, but meh! In other words, Dr. Phil offered nothing original; no ideas; nothing new.  The tagline was even typical:  

“Choose my team, so that together, we’ll take care of the real issues.”

Dr. Phil will have to do better, if that is even possible.

CAQ will likely implode.

Quebec Solidaire will likely hold onto their two seats and perhaps even gain a few in working class Montreal ridings.

This latest Leger Marketing poll should be taken with a huge grain of salt and like the campaign between the Liberals and the PQ, it is largely about nothing.