Speculation in the Event of a Harpercon Minority–It’s Not What Many are Predicting

Many are speculating this scenario as many pundits are predicting a weak Harpercon minority. Both the Signal and threehundredeight.com seat count projections are pointing in that direction, however, as days pass, Harper’s seat count projections increase. Many in that crucial 905 belt around Toronto are tight 2 way Liberal-Con races where Harpercons are the incumbent. Several new seats in play with no incumbents, but would favour the Harpercons.  Due to that, the fact that we as progressives have not learned our lessons from 2011 allowing blind partisanship (from both Liberals and ND) allow for vote splitting and Harper coming up the middle. Mulcair and Trudeau duking each other instead of keeping their eyes on the prize. They fight for the keys to Stornoway, not 24 Sussex. In fact, since the campaign began, I’ve been getting a sense of deja-vu from the 2011 campaign.  With the exception of 30 new seats, gerrymandered of course, and a much longer campaign, I see no change from 2011.  As progressives we keep losing the messaging war and we don’t have the discipline that Harpercons have. For those reasons and others, I predict a resounding majority for Harper. Plus the niqab, stripping citizenship from convicted terrorists and snitch line for Barbaric cultural practices are all a big hit for most usually a-political voters. Who needs a decent economy when we haz security.

However, since many are predicting a Harpercon minority, fine, I’ll play.

In the first place, whether the Liberals, NDP or Harpercons win a minority and even if the Harpercons were to place third, the incumbent always has first crack at forming government and gaining confidence from the House of Commons. So, some of my theories would work, regardless who gets the most and who gets the least of seats.

Many assume Harper would resign shortly afterward should he not yield a majority.  It is also assumed that somehow the NDP and the Liberals would band together and vote against the Speech from the Throne. Yes, I know, both Trudeau and Mulcair have ruled out supporting Harper in a majority, but things change. I believe both said that to court progressive voters to their respective parties. It’s a campaign. It doesn’t have to be true; it only has to be plausible.  I am not so quick to make that presumption. It assumes both Mulcair and Trudeau remain leaders of their respective parties following a vote for a hung parliament. Not so sure that will happen. We could very well wake up to new interim leaders of either or both parties.

Let’s examine a few case scenarios, shall we, boys n girls?

Harpercons Win the Most Seats, NDP in second place and Liberals in Third

There would be a strong possibility Justin Trudeau would either resign or be forced out of Liberal leadership by his own party.  The Liberals have been known over time to eat their own. Just ask Jean Chretien, Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff. I won’t count Bob Rae because he only served as an interim leader until Trudeau won the leadership. The Liberals, if they’re to survive, not to mention Justin Trudeau, himself, they must at the very least, hit second place. That would include popular vote percentage as well as seat count. It would not be enough to simply up their seat count if they only come in third.

Another thing is that Trudeau may well throw in the towel. I always suspected he chose to run for leadership due to pressure within his own party to do so. If anyone recalls, not long before that, he was reluctant to do so because he was concerned that he would not have enough time to spend with his family and would’ve preferred to wait until his young children were in high school. It’s possible he may leave the leadership and cite family demands.

This to say, we can wake up to a new interim Liberal leader and a leadership convention to be held in short order due to a minority situation.

The possibility of Trudeau losing his own seat in Papineau could also trigger his resignation regardless how the Liberals place after all the votes are counted. Papineau, as we all know, has Anne Lagace-Dowson, a star candidate for the NDP running against Trudeau. She is not to be discounted. She is well respected amongst both Francophones and Anglophones.   She would not have likely entertained running against Trudeau if she didn’t think she had reasonable certainty of beating him. At this time, both the Signal and threehundredeight.com have Trudeau in a comfortable lead, however,  this is not to be taken for granted at any rate.

Hapercons Win the Most Seats, with Liberals in Second Place and NDP in Third

In this scenario, we would more than likely see Mulcair shoved out the door by his own party if he didn’t leave on his own. Mutiny within his own party is evident. Some of his Quebec base have come out against their leader’s position on the niqab,   .  Many in the NDP believe their leader is too right winged. Should he bring his party back down to third place, I assume he will be shown the door.

The same would also apply should he lose his own seat in Outremont. Unlike the Trudeau — Lagace-Dowson contest in Papineau where both the Signal and threehundredeight.com seem to agree, there is much difference between the Rachel Dayan, the Liberal candidate in Outremont and Tom Mulcair.  Threehundredeight.com has Mulcair in a comfortable 9 point lead over Dayan whereas the Signal has Dayan in a narrow lead over Mulcair.  As a rule, I tend to pay more attention to the Signal because unlike most pollsters, they remove under and overrepresentation which is a cause of margins of error. However, I make an exception this time because other aggregators like Tooclosetocall.com and Election Prediction Project also have Mulcair in the lead.  All this to say that should Mulcair lose his own seat, regardless of whether he maintains second place or drops to third, he will likely be shown the door.

Harper Will Remain

Despite speculation that Harper would leave should he only eke out a minority, I strongly believe he will stick around and see how things play and not to mention, play his own political games himself.

Another thing that should be noted is that Harper, regardless where he places in a minority situation is the one to recall parliament following an election. It is possible he can postpone the seating of parliament until 2016.

 

“So if the election is Oct.19, 2015… there’s no big problem with [Harper] waiting until late January or even early February [to face a parliament]. Sure there will be criticism, but constitutionally he’s on solid ground.”

I can see that happening.  It would be a Harper thing to do given his obsession with power.

There is a flip side to that argument, however. Both the NDP and the Liberals would need time to replenish their war chests and at least one of the two parties may need to hold a leadership race.  Harper could pounce on that opportunity, give a throne speech without any concessions, knowing no one would go along and go to the governor general to seek another election where he could very well win another majority due to the weaknesses of the other two.

It also bares reminding that in March, 2011, when a vote of non confidence hit, many were groaning quite loudly about another election called 2.5 years after the last one. Sure the NDP and the Liberals did the right thing and to most who follow politics were able to see that Harper’s confidence motion was deliberate just so he could justifiably call that election. However, most blamed the Liberals for triggering that election and to a lesser degree, Jack Layton.  All went voting Harper a majority to ensure they would not see the dreaded polling station for a long time. Like I said, nothing has changed.  If Jane and Joe Six-pack complained about going to an election 2.5 years from the last, imagine the uproar over an election being called just months later?  Voter turn out would likely be even lower as they would still be reeling from the marathon campaign played out online, newspapers, radio and the big tv screen. Yes, I even heard progressives blaming the Liberals and the NDP for that Harper majority– that they should not have triggered that election even though that was of Harper’s own making.

Harper would also stick around thinking that even if the NDP and the Liberals formed some kind of agreement and went to the Governor General asking to form government, there is no guarantee he will.  David Johnston has proven to be Harper’s yes man who serves only at his pleasure. It’s more likely that he will grant Harper’s dissolution of parliament.

Even if the GG did agree to allow the NDP and the Liberals to form some kind of government, there is no guarantee it would last very long. Both Mulcair and Trudeau have shown animosity toward each other during this campaign and will continue to do so right to the finish line.

No Matter What Justin Trudeau and Tom Mulcair say About Not Propping a Harpercon Minority, Don’t Believe it

Both Mulcair and Trudeau came out swinging against the idea of supporting a Harpercon minority. Fine, they need to shore up progressive voters as I’ve mentioned above, but that likely won’t be realistic.

After a long marathon campaign, both the NDP and the Liberals would likely be short of funds to fight another election and would need time to replenish. If a leadership convention is needed for either party, that’s more funds they would need to raise and spend, thus, leaving them in even weaker financial situations to fight another election shortly after.

No, what could happen, depending on Harper’s mood of the day, throw a bone at either the Liberals or the NDP in the throne speech in exchange for getting one of them to get him past it. Both the Liberals and the NDP would play their usual game of who blinks first and the other will do the opposite.  Hell, depending how broke they are or if they only have an interim leader, Harper may not even throw a bone and wait and see who blinks first.

My Own Prediction in the Event of a Harper Minority

Harper will definitely stick around as he knows he can get a majority if another election is called within months.  He also knows that any agreement the NDP and teh Liberals may come to post election, it would fall apart sooner rather than later like a house of cards.

While I can see Harper postponing calling parliament until 2016 as we know how he will do anything to cling to power, I don’t think he will do that as he will have momentum and the bucks on his side, thus at the very least, triggering an election sooner rather than later and then stoking outrage in the masses against the two opposition parties. It worked in 2011. No reason it wouldn’t work again. Waiting until 2016, anything can happen and either of the two opposition parties could get back their mojo (assuming they learn the fine art of appealing to voters’ values; the heart; the gut;  the way Harper has mastered that game), unlikely, but anything can happen. That would be the last thing Harper would want.

Harper will find either the Liberals or the NDP supporting the throne speech in order to not fight another election they’re not ready for.  Should they both defeat Harper’s throne speech, Harper will get that majority and they know it.  Both the NDP and the Liberals will play who blinks first for as long as they can.

Either Justin Trudeau or Tom Mulcair will resign shortly after the election, depending how they place and whether or or not they lose their own seats.