To Call or Not To Call an Election This Spring

That is what many of us are asking ourselves as well as speculating about, among, of course, other things. Frank Graves of EKOS polls tells the Hill Times that the Liberals would be ‘crazy’ not to call an election now

Grits’ best chance to ‘get rid of this guy. He’s very resilient, the economy is going to improve, Ignatieff is not going to get any better.’

If Mr Graves were in front of me, I would have just one question for him: if, as he says, Iggy isn’t going to get any better, why call an election now? 

I had heard rumblings about Graves being a Harpercon supporter at one time or another, and with  the Harpercon cheerleader squad already beginning to credit St-Stevie with the Olympic hockey  gold medal win, including a commenter over at Scott’s Diatribe’s. That might be part of it; he may want to see a Harpercon majority. That may be a small part of it, but I don’t think that is the most important reason of Mr. Graves.

When he makes a point about Iggy not getting better in the same sentence as the grits must trigger an election this spring, I can only believe that the sooner Iggy loses a federal election, the sooner he will have to exit as leader. That would be a likely scenario. 

However,  if Iggy were to go now, we all know that it will be a Bob Rae coronation. More suicidal as he is a far worse choice than Iggy or Dion ever would have been.  I can see not only the Harpercon attack ads, but the Bloc Quebecois attack ads as well: ‘Do you want Rae to do to Canada what he did to Ontario?’ He would never win the two key battleground provinces of Quebec and Ontario. I think most of us see those attack ads. Plus, he doesn’t do well with the media, I find. Veterans like Craig Oliver makes Rae look pretty damned stupid.  Oh what an even bigger mess for the Liberals potentially.

There are only two things that can honestly boost the Liberals: either Trudeaumania, the sequel or of course, a coalition. The latter, being more of a necessity and a reality if we can only get a grassroots movement to marry off the N.D.P and the Liberals; of course add the Greens and offer some kind of role for Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois.

 Although, honestly, I wouldn’t think Duceppe would participate this time: he’s on the lecture circuit, actively reviving and promoting the Quebec Sovereignty movement after Lucien Bouchard threw down the gauntlet.  However, I digress…

As for a potential Trudeaumania the sequel. While  not entirely out of the question ( I have spoken to many former Liberal supporters (volunteers and benefactors alike) who said they could come back to the Liberals if Justin became the leader, and that is in Montreal: a city in a province where his dad was supposedly hated by all), the old boys’ network inside the Liberal party would never allow it.

Then, there is the upcoming budget.  So many rumours. Many pundits  believe that other than continuing the stimulus from last year’s budget, there will be no new spending nor no new taxes (except, of course, that airport ‘fee’ Baird spoke of to pay for their government porn projector).

We pretty much know that Stevie isn’t going to cancel the corporate tax breaks, much to Layton’s (and mine) chagrin.

Many, like myself, believe there will be a last minute surprise poison pill in this budget.  Whatever that can be, I will leave to the imagination; those who aren’t fooled by Stevie’s lustre, I’m sure the possibilities must be endless. I believe as I’ve seen others speculate, that he will try to remove the 1.95$ /vote funding for political parties.

Stevie only needs one band to prop his budget up.  Unless Jack Layton sees something else he likes and loosens his wish for cancelling corporate tax breaks,  I don’t see him going along with it.

Iggy, who claims he was never invited by Stevie to any pre-budget meeting, won’t commit either way until he actually sees this budget, which is what a responsible leader of an opposition party would say.

Gilles Duceppe is still busy promoting Quebec Sovereignty and seems to be more preoccupied by that than the upcoming budget.  I guess it will be the usual, ‘if it’s good for Quebec, he’ll vote with it: if not, then against.

Steve V and Scott’s Diatribe’s posts both disagree with Mr Graves’ assertion that there should be an election this spring.  Ordinarily, I would agree given that Iggy won’t get better  

However, if there were to be a coalition, I would say have an election sooner rather than later.  Tarnish that olympic gold somehow and fast and then an election of the coalition vs Harpercons.  Graves is right: we do need to get rid of St-Stevie before any more damage is done. He has already begun to do his worst with his divide and conquer games.  

Oh and this time, can we stop lambasting Iggy when he tries to be oppositional as an opposition leader should be?