Don’t think it can’t happen. Anything can happen if we let it, including an Idi Amin or a General Pinochet governing. Yes, this is one of those posts many progressive bloggers won’t like me for. Nonetheless, I am playing the Devil’s Advocate in this posting. I wouldn’t call it complete surrender to the Harpercons, but I would say maintaining the status quo for right now is the lesser of all the evils. I am referring to posts written today by Skippy Stalin and Dr. Dawg, displaying disappointment and dread over the possibility (and a very strong one at that) of Iggy compromising with Steve and allowing the documents to remain secret or anything like that.
Yes, we heard Jack Layton telling Craig Oliver squarely that he and the NDP would be ready to go into election mode, but he and Duceppe really have nothing to gain or lose at this point. They will never ever govern. The Liberals on the other hand, is quite another can of worms altogether. Yes, Iggy should have more balls, but the treatment of Afghan detainees and secret documents about this are the last issue the Liberals should campaign with. They would lose big time. They could try to make it about democracy and the rule of law, but the fact is most Canadians don’t understand those things, to them, it would be just another one of those pesky “nuances” intellectuals use to confuse everybody else. That folks, is a prime example of Steve’s expertise in wedge politics and it works so well when all he needs is one party to keep him afloat and it really doesn’t matter which one on which issue, now does it?
Unfortunately, since 9/11, many average Canadians have lost that compassion we were once known for. Never mind polls or articles from that Harpercon friendly media; all one has to do is talk to their family members, friends, aquaintances, co-workers, hell, even your local shop keeper; to really know what average Canadians think. And the ones I have spoken to are Anglophone former and current Liberal voters as a rule. In fact, I think the French separatists who have been dubbed as racist by the ROC are more tolerant of their Muslim neighbours. I would encourage my readers to do the same. One thing I’ve learned, never assume anything about these people you thought you knew. The fact that we have lost our once famous Canadian compassion is just a drop in the bucket.
What you will surely find, as I have found, that most Canadians not only don’t understand how parliament works and who’s role is what or the rule of law. Nor do they even seek to educate themselves on it. Believe me, I have tried explaining to many people, they still either don’t get it or don’t want to get it. So for Iggy, who is already considered to be the intellectual snob as opposed to the dictator who hangs out at Timmy’s, making this election campaign be about democracy or parliamentary supremacy simply won’t work for that reason. Also, as it would be more than likely Steve who would trigger an election over this, Steve will make it about ‘Taliban thugs who throw acid on girls’ faces, stone women if they’re seen talking to a man who is not family or go offer space to Al Qaeda training for terrorist acts, have no credibility, nor do average Canadians care about what happens to them. In fact, the reactions for the most part, I’ve observed is anything from who cares? to Blatchford’s schtick of ‘you can’t have a proper war without anyone getting hurt’ to the flat out bigots who say on their podcasts for all to hear that ‘torturing brown people is fun’. Many have even gone in so far as to state that the Taliban are terrorist thugs, and therefore, they are not afforded protections under the Geneva Conventions. Well, that remains to be seen.
Steve will also make it about supporting the troops. There is some dispute over whether or not troops can or cannot refuse orders if they know what they’re being ordered to do is illegal. Yes, there is Nuremburg over 60 years ago. However, if a soldier is refusing these orders, wouldn’t it be likely that life could be miserable for them ? Their punishment from their peers. It’s all in survival. But that’s neither here nor there. While most Canadians these days on the right, center and the left definitely want Canada to pull out in 2011 and not stay another day and they know this is not winnable, they also won’t hear of anybody speaking ill of the troops.
For better or worse, over the years, Canadians have always worshipped the Canadian military. To them, they are heroes who risk their lives everyday. Everybody needs a hero. If we condemn the troops for war crimes, whether or not many will believe evidence against them or not, they lose their heroes. In human nature, it can be argued that anyone who takes heroes away from anyone, in any shape or form, will be the ones paying for that act. No question, Steve will use that and hammer it home in an election campaign. Unfortunately, since Nuremburg, if a government is found guilty in breaching international laws, there is no way to do that without blaming and prosecuting the soldiers themselves.
Plus, there is the economy, which is gaining in strength. That is thanks to Paul Martin. In spite of the U.S. pressuring him to deregulate the Canadian financial industry as they did their own, Martin held firm. He may have been a Mr Dithers, trying to please everybody, but he held firm on maintaining regulation. If Steve would have had a majority back then, we would be in the same miserable shape the U.S. find themselves in. But no, Steve is only good at blaming the Liberals for anything bad happening under his watch, but never for anything good. In fact, Steve will campaign on how he (probably wouldn’t even give credit to team Flaherty) and he alone, saved the economy; that he is an economic genious. Again, that is kool-aid many Canadians will be too eager to swallow.
Plus, good ol’ ADSCAM, that big ol’ Liberal crime spree that seems to never go away. Even though, most involved have been fired, imprisoned, dead and/or moved to parts unknown. It has been solved. But, nevertheless, pundits are hellbent on reviving it. Steve will use it against them to show how ‘corrupt’ and sneaky the Liberals are. Why not? ADSCAM brought Steve into office, it could well save him again.
Also, having most of the MSM outlets in lockstep with Steve these days is invaluable to him and any election campaign.
Probably many of you are thinking if what I am saying is true, why does Steve go to such lengths to hide these documents? Good question, especially in light of the fact General Natynczyk doesn’t seem particularly disturbed about it. I thought at first (with hope) that Canadians really did care about how we treated the detainees; that if Harper is so afraid of these documents going out to the media, then he must be afraid of tanking in an election. Then, he seems to be particularly afraid of releasing the documents to Gilles Duceppe. That I find puzzling. Yes, torture would turn off much of the Francophone separatist base…here in Montreal. But rural Quebec, where half of Quebecers live are indeed bigoted. They see any middle-eastern as a terrorist thug and do have that vigilante mentality or at best, indifference toward them. If Brother Steve took the time to study the folks of rural Quebec, they would know this. Hell, I think Mad Max is spending too much time in Alberta to pay attention to his Quebec constituants, or he would have told Master Steve that they wouldn’t care.
No, I would suspect Steve is more afraid of this going to international media rather than local media, after all, most of the media is in lockstep with him,these days. (Assuming we’re guilty of war crimes; and with Steve’s propensity and fanaticism for secrecy over these documents, I’m going to assume that we are). He must be paying close attention to the British torturegate playing out in the Human Rights courts these days, given their timeline of events is so remarkably similar to that of Canada’s. The British media outlets are certainly covering Britain’s case and they do make references of the accusations against Canada.
Nor is Steve really supporting the troops, since Natynczyk has no problem showing the documents, that reasoning has lost validity. I think he may well fear potential arrests and/or court marshalls will bring accused soldiers to making plea bargains or backroom deals, perhaps (Assuming they’re guilty, naturally)? It’s all about survival, after all.
No, this will unfold sooner or later. Someone will ‘goof ‘ and let something damning slip to the international community; a group that actually cares about enforcing the Geneva Conventions. Let them be the big bad villains to take away the heroes of many Canadians. If Iggy takes that upon himself, there would be hell to pay.
Harper and Iggy may be neck and neck in the polls, although, Steve is somewhat higher by a few points, anyway. We all know how Steve’s numbers can jump to majority territory almost overnight. We have seen it following Iggy dropping the gauntlet last September and we saw it again recently, following the gold medal win in men’s olympic hockey. I suspect that an election call on this issue would and could give Steve that majority based on those reasons mentioned above.
This brings me to my original question, is Iggy falling on his face in an election really worth a Harpercon majority? And with today’s situation and post-Milliken ruling, that is the only question we should be asking ourselves. If it is worth a Harpercon majority to you, do be careful what you wish for. If we end up with a Harpercon totalitarian regime, we will more than likely be stuck with him either until he dies or decides he’s tired of being king. Remember that slogan, “de l’action, Pas d’election”.
Also, remember, Iggy doesn’t seem to make many moves without Peter Donolo’s say-so first. If Iggy decides to compromise with Brother Steve, probably because Donolo knows the sad reality.
Another sad reality? A Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition is now out of the question. Steve has already taken care of that with his wedgie games.
The Liberals have started coming up with good ideas and have started heading left. They should continue on this path. Although, realistically, as the best he will get is a minority and probably a weaker one than Steve’s, he probably won’t be able to implement many of them, depending on who the NDP aligns themselves with, and they have, in the past, shown to align themselves more or less as often with the Harpercons as with the Liberals. However, still, Canadians want to hear these ideas.
Will there ever be an ideal circumstance for Iggy to go to election? Sadly, more than likely, no, there won’t. As the monstrous ‘liberal shill’ pollster once pointed out: Iggy will never get any better. But, this is the worst issue to go to an election over. That is why it is in his best interests to negotiate with Steve.
I’m no fan of the Liberals, especially these days. But, much like Gilles Duceppe, the Liberals are my enemy’s enemy. They’re all we have at the moment. Yes, we need a new leader. But that would mean a Harpercon win at an election. By then, it won’t matter, the Harpercons would have caused too much damage to the point of no return.
I found the video below over at CC HQ. I guess he must be just as disillusioned these days as I am, as he says that trying to educate many Canadians (he uses wankers, but I believe it’s more than just wankers) on how our government and parliament work is like teaching sheep to surf.
I’m not sure what you’re suggesting here// are you saying the Liberals should just meekly surrender and make Speaker Miliken’s ruling worthless?
ck Reply:
May 2nd, 2010 at 11:43 PM
I knew I was going to catch flack for this. And I’m prepared to answer.
Like yourself and others, I thought Milliken’s ruling would have been cause for celebration for most Canadians. It really hasn’t been. Nor has it changed many Canadians’ minds. As I’ve pointed out, many don’t understand parliament and how it’s supposed to work, nor do they care; at least, not in this case.
It doesn’t matter really what you and I think. It matters more what so many Canadians think. The average Canadians you talk to everyday; yes, the “Timmy’s” crowd. Fact is, many swallow that Harpercon kool-aid and are content to do so. Personal experience taught me that there is no use in trying to educate folks like my coworkers and other aquaintances. Many of them have that vigilante mentality.
Canadian Cynic pointed out the relationship between Iggy and Steve (I assume that’s what he meant anyway) can be compared to that of battered women’s syndrome. An unhealthy, but (for the moment, anyway) an unbreakable but toxic relationship.
Steve has already hinted that he is prepared to call an election on the matter.
I already illustrated Steve’s strategies. He is nothing, if not predictable.
If it were anybody else but Iggy and Steve, I would say, yes, go for broke. But, we’re stuck with Steve the totalitarian. Nothing is more terrifying to me than a Harpercon majority.
If this were about say, the continued legalization to accessible abortions for all, I would also say, yes, go for broke there too, even with Iggy and Steve. Most Canadians are either pro-choice, or at the very least, believe that abortion should always remain legalized, even if they themselves are pro-life.
Go for broke on the Canada health Act, most Canadians are concerned about accessible health care, no matter how little money they have.
Even go for broke if the detainees were a more sympathetic bunch Canadians can actually have empathy for. However, war detainees of any stripe, colour or ethnicity are often the worst dregs of humanity (let’s face one fact, the Taliban are scum and no one can white wash them; surely, even the left has to agree with that!), and humans have a natural instinct for vigilante justice. Hence the reason why laws such as those found in the Geneva Conventions are necessary. Most of us know that two wrongs don’t make a right, but, unfortunately, many do believe in that whole “eye for an eye” stuff from the bible.
There are just so many other issues for Iggy to come up with to hammer Steve with.
I guess what I’m saying is, If Iggy doesn’t negotiate and Steve calls an election, don’t be surprised to see a Harpercon majority. And, as mentioned, nothing terrifies me more than a Harpercon majority. I’m surprised it doesn’t frighten many others.
But unfortunately, many Canadians simply don’t care about “thugs who throw acid on girls’ faces”. And they certainly don’t want any stain on their heroes (the troops). Reality is, more Canadians than we like are prejudice against Muslims and particularly so since 9/11.
I don’t think Sister Sage is suggesting that the Liberals should surrender and make Speaker Milliken’s ruling worthless. I do personally think that the Liberals will surrender and make Speaker Milliken’s ruling worthless.
The Afghanistan detainee/prisoner issue is probably of low priority for most Canadians. If Ignatieff were to campaign on democratic accountability, he would need to show a relationship between democracy and concrete issues such as family economics, personal taxes, health care, and the personal environment.
Another problem right now is that we have several MPs who will be eligible to receive pensions in a couple of months. These MPs do not want an election right now.
If Iggy does cave, Harper will have already won and we will being living with a Harper majority, in every way that matters. I am afraid you have succumbed to the “whipped dog” syndrome. All Steve has to do is raise an eyebrow and you go whimpering into a corner.
I agree with your analysis. I can picture the Con hacks dissecting their latest private polling numbers and seeing that outside of Ottawa, some progressive bloggers, and poli-sci junkies, the historical ruling means very little.
Of course, they already know that.
“Unfortunately, since 9/11, many average Canadians have lost that compassion we were once known for.” – Yup, I have noticed that too. Even those who were once in the middle or a bit to the left have made a marked shift to the right… yes, as a resuult of 9/11 but more because Western gov’ts – Canada, the U.S. and the U.K. in particular – have exploited that tragedy for their owqn partisan gains. I wrote a post about the politics of fear at some point in the past few years… but I’m too lazy to search it out right now.
As for Grit cooperation with the Robot?
You’re right. Iggy doesn’t have much of a choice. No, don’t just roll over – at least cooperate grudgingly. Harper WOULD win a majority on this issue by playing the “us or them” card. And in this environment where the Timmie’s crowd is out muscling the Starbucks group, that is almost a (sad) certainty.
Again – good post.