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Some will be predictable. Some, many will chide me for being pessimistic; I call it realism, but anyway… These are my predictions. If any of my co-bloggers and contributors have any predictions, they’re strongly encouraged to do their own posts about them. It would be interesting indeed. Anyhow, on with the festivities as they say.
Federal
Party Leaders and Election Results
I do believe there will be an election this year, although, it looks less and less likely that it will be because of the budget, it looks like at least one party is going to float it, and it’s looking more like it will be the NDP, if not, Stevie will likely go to Gilles Duceppe and offer that HST reimbursement.
However, like Thwap, I think Stevie Spiteful will have his election over something else before the year is out.
The result will either be a Harpercon majority or remain with same seat count, depending whether or not Stevie Spiteful commits another boo boo to displease at least one branch of his base.
I also believe that at least two of the leaders will be leaving, if not three. No, sadly, Stevie Spiteful won’t be one of them.
If I’m wrong about the election result, I don’t see Stevie Spiteful resigning. He has tunnel vision when it comes to Trudeau derangement syndrome and turning Canada back to 1878. In fact, if a Liberal minority were to somehow squeak through, Stevie won’t give up government so quickly, much the same way McKenzie King held on. So, either way, Stevie will continue governing.
Iggy will resign. The Liberals will hold a leadership convention. I can see either Domenic Leblanc or Gerard Kennedy taking over the party. The Liberals will more than likely be seeking fresh blood; someone younger to take over the party.
Jack Layton will resign. Who will take over will largely depend on whether or not Mulcair keeps his Outremont seat. Since I don’t think he will, I see Paul Dewar taking over the helm and he’ll raise the party’s popularity, not to mention membership.
Gilles Duceppe will leave the Bloc Quebecois to seek leadership of the Parti-Quebecois this year.
Election results by various ridings and the future of various MPs
The Bloc Quebecois will win more seats in Quebec, including taking the Harpercons’ Quebec City area seats, as Stevie won’t be funding the hockey arena and Mayor Regis Labeaume will campaign against Stevie in his city and probably extending his reach in the surrounding area.
Ex-Lax Max Bernier will hang on to the Beauce, as those folks don’t care about hockey arenas. However, unlike in 2008, where the riding map was all Harpercon blue, he will have closer competition. The Liberal candidate, Claude Morin, ex-ADQ MNA for the riding of Beauce-Sud, like Bernier is of the region and has a clear understanding of the entrepreneurial nature of the riding. Bernier will have to watch his back.
Larry Smith will win in Lac-St-Louis. It’s yacht club WASPY NIMBY territory who love their football heroes, and right winged ideology is growing in popularity; they worry more about keeping that second car than health care, as well as keeping the lower socio-economic class rif-raf out of their precious neighbourhoods. They’re also the batshit crazies who call the Tea-baggin’ Tommy Schnurmacher show, egging him on. They likely won’t be bothered by Smith being in the senate first, after all, like good conservatives, it’s ok if you’re a con.
Francis Scarpaleggia was a good MP for the riding, but he is considered too boring. These folks love all that are big and shiny. It will be a close race, though, as there are strong Liberal supporters who will stick with the party, thick and thin.
Take heart though, seeing that the Harpercons will lose more seats, that Larry Smith factor won’t matter all that much in Quebec.
The NDP won’t fare as well as they’re hoping. NDP candidate, Francoise Boivin will oust the Bloc incumbent, Richard Nadeau, in Gatineau.
Tom Mulcair will lose Outremont to Martin Cauchon, however, it will be a razor thin margin. Perhaps even a recount.
Harpercon MP Bernard Genereux will lose Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup to Bloc Quebecois, Nancy Gagnon, by a slim margin. This 100% Francophone riding’s apetite for separatist parties is making a come back.
Harpercon MP, Denis Lebel, in Roberval, will also lose to the Bloc Quebecois.
Julian Fantino in Vaughan will not last too long. He gave himself away when he went whining to Jane Taber about big bad Justin Trudeau, basically complaining about the Liberals “making his life miserable” and how he ‘had to hold back’. He proved that by-election campaign to be tiring for him. Now, he’ll have to get back to it very soon. This time, the Harpercons won’t be able to spend all of their time babysitting him in Vaughan, assuming he is still around for the next election, that is. I still don’t see how someone who is used to running the show and being left to his own devices for a better part of two decades to be all of a sudden willing to be micromanaged by the PMO, especially by the likes of Stevie’s lapdog, Dimitri, who is young enough to be his son.
Bob Rae will be resigning as well. He has no future as leader of the Liberals as he is unelectable in the battleground provinces of Quebec and Ontario. Besides, as mentioned above, the Liberals will be seeking younger leadership.
Stephane Dion will also resign and go back to teaching.
Assuming Jean Charest resigns this year (coming to that later), Denis Coderre will resign to seek the leadership of the provincial Liberals, although, he will lose that.
Belinda Stronach will make a comeback to the Liberals and will probably run as a candidate in one of those Greater Toronto Area ridings.
I guess I don’t need to say that Petey MacKay will be leaving.
Canadian Economy
The deficit, needless to say, will continue to increase as the Harpercons continue to grease their corporate friends, bribe target ridings and continue to lower corporate taxes. Quelle surprise.
Watch for the IMF to continue villifying Canada and the Harpercons to start eagerly paying attention to whatever.
Quebec
Jean Charest, as much as he tries to hang on, he will resign in 2011. It’s just a question of looking for the best timing for him. It will quite possibly happen around the summer closing of the National Assembly. As the polling numbers remain stubbornly low for him, and endless chastising of he and his party, Charest cannot continue this way.
Of course, as deputy premier, Nathalie Normandeau will become the second Female Canadian provincial premier following suit to Newfoundland and Laborador’s Kathy Dunderdale. She will call a provincial election in the Fall of 2011. Turn out will be much higher than the 2008 provincial election, needless to say, and the Parti-Quebecois will win, but not with Pauline Marois as leader, of course.
Naturally, I’ve said this often enough, Pauline Marois, leader of the Parti-Quebecois, will lose her leadership confidence vote this April and will be forced to resign. Those who will throw their hat in the leadership ring will be the language looney, Mr. Pierre ”Montreal Habs are too Federalist” Curzi, PQ MNA for Marie-Victorin and former Radio-Canada broadcaster, Bernard Drainville and of course, Gilles Duceppe. I believe the two front runners will be Drainville and Duceppe, but Duceppe will ultimately win.
Sovereignty will be further resurrected in preparation for yet another referendum on Sovereignty come 2012. The result of that will largely depend on whether or not Stevie Spiteful gets his majority in 2011.
The Quebec Freedom Network-Reseau Liberte Quebec, who has another hootenanny planned for 2011 in the Conservative-friendly Montreal West-Island, will have at best, the same turn out as the inaugural ball in Quebec City last October, or else, an even much lower turn out. As with the Lucides in 2005, this Quebec chapter of the Tea-party were and are a novelty act; nothing more. Fund raising won’t be as they hope it will.
In addition, I wouldn’t be too surprise to hear if they disbanded. I can see too many differences erupting with that motley gang of six.
Mme Carbonneau of the CSN, just let it go. Giving them more attention than they deserve isn’t the way to go.
That mythical center-right party of Francois Legault and Joseph Facal, Force Quebec which was also to be a political movement at the moment, promoting center-right ideals has also seemed to fizzle, especially since Joseph Facal announced he was no longer continuing this movement.
The ADQ may make some gains in the Montreal West-Island ridings, but it will be a protest vote against the Liberals, nothing more. They will still remain the third place party.
Quebec’s flirtation with the right will once again be shelved, at least for the time being.
Canadian Media
Well, Stevie Spiteful will continue to control the message, as such, corporate media outlets, for the most part, will be pushing Stevie Spiteful’s far right values even more feverishly than before. Lotsa kool-aid will be served.
Fox News North will have a lot of false starts, postponements and last minute programming changes. The wingnutty, tea-bagger north element will no doubt, subscribe and tune into the Harpercon infomercial channel, but that too will have a hard time competing against the Vicks vapo rub induced sobs of Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin’s reality shows on the actual Fox News. Krista Erikson will be no competition for the excitable Gretchen Carlson. Fox News North will have difficulty finding sponsors as well, thus financing itself will become increasingly difficult. Because of the above mentioned reasons, and the fact that Quebecor will be sued yet again, Fox News North will be short lived.
More Wacky Weather
2010 was said to be the warmest year on record. I venture to say that 2011 will be even warmer. Like many others, I am predicting more storms, more serious hurricanes, more strange weather patterns.
Yes, climate change deniers, keep up your bullshit, it’s what keeps you a sleepin’ at night, right?
The Excited States of Amerika
Needless to say, let the Rethuglican leadership primary games begin! Watch both Sarah Palin and Donald Trump to turn their campaigns into reality shows on the big tv screen.
President Obama will continue to be at the mercy of the Rethuglicans and the Tea-party, as well as corporations. As Dr. Phil would say, ”the tail will be wagging the dog” here. Results will turn disastrous; economically and politically.
And those are my predictions for 2011, such as they are. I honestly hope I’m wrong on a few of them and correct on others.
I think your predictions are pretty good.
I do think that Mulcair will win his riding. The main reason is that the local voters will know that the Liberals will not likely win the federal election. There is no need to have an MP in the government if the race is between the Liberals and NDP. I do think Layton will resign after the election and the battle will be between Mulcair and Dewar. Who will win? I don’t know.
You are correct about the Liberals wanting a younger leader to replace Ignatieff. LeBlanc is a good potential candidate. I am wondering about Justin Trudeau. He may run just to get his feet wet. Bob Rae will resign after the election. He knows that his time is up. Gerard Kennedy will struggle if he runs. The beginning of the race will depend on the candidates’ fundraising skills.
If Harper does win a minority. He’ll hold on as long as he can. I can’t see him resigning very soon. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, they won’t have much time to hold an effective leadership campaign. They could get the Conservative version of Michael Ignatieff (or Sarah Palin) if there is a campaign.
ck Reply:
December 31st, 2010 at 6:51 PM
Thanks for your comments. Very interesting.
I still disagree about Mulcair tho. Without saying too much, I do have some contacts who talk and let’s leave it at that.
First off, Cauchon came back for a reason, and I remember that he wanted the Outremont nom or forget it. I will take that to mean that constituents had asked him to come back. But there is always more than meets the eye.
Trudeau may well run to get his feet wet, but there is one issue; he has to be re elected in Papineau, and that is by no stretch, a fait accompli. It is not a Liberal stronghold. In 2008, by all accounts, Bloc incumbent, Vivienne Barbot shouldn’t have lost; there was really no reason for her to lose. She’s also popular with the large Haitian community of St-Michel, the eastern most district of Papineau riding. It is to my understanding that Ms Barbot will be trying to recapture her seat. She is still active in the Bloc Quebecois. I believe she’s a party vp of some stripe.
An election in Papineau is usually a race between Bloc and Liberal. Liberals would catch the mostly federalist, largely Allophone (English a second language) western most district of Papineau; the Bloc, the center of the riding, Villeray district, mostly Francophone, separatist, where most of the protests were held against Justin when he was running. Whoever takes St-Michel, wins Papineau (as a rule, you understand). Justin, thus far, seems to only hold riding events in friendly Park-Ex, never seeming to venture out into either Villeray or St-Michel. Justin won Papineau in 2008 by a slim margin; by a little over 2%.
Right now, I can’t really predict whether Justin Trudeau will hold or whether Ms Barbot will take back Papineau.
Given that the Parti-Quebecois is likely to come back to power sooner rather than later, it’s only a matter of time before the sovereignty kick is back in full swing, thus making is far more difficult for Justin to retain his riding.
CK,
I’m predicting that Martin Cauchon pulls out of the race once it becomes public knowledge that he’s the senior director of a company doing tight business with Tony Accurso. Check out Prestige Telecom. Combined with the fact that that he was a senior Quebec Cabinet Minister the whole time the sponsoship scandal was happening, his new dealings show him to have zero credibility and or irretrievably poor judgement or both.
ck Reply:
January 1st, 2011 at 12:27 PM
He was never implicated by Gomery in the sponsorship scandal, for openers. Furthermore, it’s really time to let the sponsorship scandal die a proper death. Hell, a friend of mine ran for the Liberal nomination in Jeanne Leber, a young fellow, who was but a 16 year old high school student in St-Boniface, Manitoba when the sponsorship scandal went down, yet folks bothered him during that campaign to take ownership of it, just to get a clue.
I don’t think there’s one Quebec politician of any stripe who hasn’t had one collusion or interaction or indirect link with Tony Accurso.
Funny how conservative scandals, as well as those of the Parti Quebecois are so easily forgiven.
Sista,
You know the political game well enough to know that there’s no way that a senior Quebec Minister didn’t know what was happening under his nose. To compare Cauchon’s accountability to that of your Manitoban friend is disingenuous. One of the bigger problems with Cauchon’s candidacy is that he left just before the Sponsorship poop hit the fan and now he’s back with a smile on his face asking for the voter’s confidence. I don’t think that any Minister of that government, especially one from Quebec can escape responsibility. If they didn’t know what was going on then they were incompetent and if they did, they’re criminals. Either way, as a citizen and a tax-payer, I want a bloody apology and I’ve never heard any elected official say the words. You think the scandal should “die a proper death”; well it starts with three words ( I am sorry) and I expect them from any of those clowns who thinks he’s going to ever get my vote again.
BTW, what you said about Accurso and Quebec politicians gives me the creeps, but you may be right. Either way it show very poor judgement on Cauchon’s part to be in business with Accurso, if indeed it’s true. It also re-enforces the perception of sliminess.
ck Reply:
January 1st, 2011 at 2:43 PM
Here we go again. Cauchon left at the same time many others from the Chretien camp left when Paul Martin took over. Are they all involved in something crooked? As mentioned, Gomery didn’t implicate Cauchon in this. Ya think Iggy would’ve gone to the trouble to throw that clown Coderre under the bus if there was a hint of sponsorship skeleton in Cauchon’s closet?
I didn’t compare him to my friend. I was only pointing out that the wingnut element will never let the sponsorship scandal die a proper death it would seem, even if it means holding any younger aspiring Liberal responsible for it.
You insist the Liberals same I’m sorry? Yet, you don’t insist on Mulroney saying “I’m sorry” for the Karlheinz Schreiber affair. Practising double standards, are we? Now, it seems that Christian Paradis, a Harpercon, is involved with those very same Quebec construction scandals involving those renovations at parliament hill, yet that seems to be ok as well, or at the very least, he’s not being held responsible.
I never said Cauchon did business with Accurso. I did some research following that other commenter, church lady. I have found no evidence to support those allegations, or anything remotely close.
I was speaking in generalities about Quebec politicians of any stripe in general; that it wasn’t exclusive to Liberals; provincial or federal.
Nothing beats sliminess than conservatism; especially Harper’s theocratic far right conservatism.
Hopeful Joe Reply:
January 1st, 2011 at 9:09 PM
I ruddy well do insist on Mulroney saying sorry. I even turn off the radio when his loser son starts trying to sell me a Kia, but Brian’s not running for office.
If you back the Libs, as you seem to in most of your posts, you should be pleased that people care enough to hold them to a higher standard; though maybe they shouldn’t bother.
For the record, I don’t put much stock in Iffy’s judgement. Coderre forgot that he doesn’t get invited up to the Charlevoix to visit the Demarais estate. Ironically, therein likely lies the roots of Cauchon’s untoward dealings.
BTW, I followed the “Church Lady’s” suggestion about Prestige Telecom. Martin Cauchon is the lead director and they have a listing in the press room as follows
MONTREAL (QUÉBEC), SEPTEMBER 15TH 2010
PRESTIGE TELECOM ANNOUNCES THE CREATION OF PRESTIGE ENERGIS AND SIGNS A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT WITH LOUISBOURG SBC
I’m not sure, but I think that Louisbourg SBC is an Accurso company.
ck Reply:
January 1st, 2011 at 10:28 PM
Do you people see Tony Accurso and/or “mobsters” in your sleep?
I looked into that. Yanno, all easily searchable. All out in the open. If this was a real problem, how come team Mulcair hasn’t gone after it by now? Or team Harper or team Duceppe, for that matter; both of whom would be better served if Mulcair were reelected?
And do you think he could go on being a partner at the prestigious Gowlings law firm if he were entangled with ‘mobsters’?
by the by; Louisbourg and Simard-Beaudry are 2 different companies.
Canada’s first woman Premier: British Columbia Premier Rita Johnston, BC Social Credit Party.
ck Reply:
January 1st, 2011 at 6:44 PM
We already have Canada’s first woman premier; Newfoundland and Laborador’s Kathy Dunderdale; Danny Williams’ interim successor
CK,
I see dirty politicians in my sleep.
If there’s one thing a law firm should do much of, it’s have close connections to people who’ll require defending.
I did some digging and both companies are Accuso’s.
If Mulcair, Duceppe and Harper are smart, they’re probably saving this stuff for election time.
One way or another, you’ve got to admit that a would-be politician who is developing relationships in a time when even Charest and Gilles Vaillancourt are trying burn the bridges they’d built with Accurso suggests crookedness or stupidity. If there’s another way to see it, please enlighten me.
ck Reply:
January 3rd, 2011 at 9:39 AM
Are you shilling for Stevie spiteful by chance?
You should be seeing Christian Paradis in your sleep as well, given the construction company hired to do reno at Parliament isn’t so squeaky clean, themselves and not free of allegations and seem to be hooked to ReformaTory fund raisers.
The Gowlings firm is a corporate law firm. The last thing they’d be dealing with is defendants accused of tax evasion.
Again, provide the proof that he is actually developing relationships with Accurso, himself.
It’s strange; your reaction is similar to John Baird’s when he’s ask about Paradis or Prentice or any of the rest in Stevie’s gang. Baird always throws back a “we’re not as corrupt as the Liberals were when they were in power”. Nobody’s admit mistakes, nobody saying “sorry, i screwed up and will do better next time”; just finger pointing. “We’re less crooked than those other guys, so trust us!” It’s pathetic!
If Cauchon wants people’s confidence, he needs to be playing it cleaner than the next guy. I’m sure Tony Accurso is a lovely guy to have drink with, but it’s his business practices that are problematic, and so the lead director of company that seeks to be in “strategic partnership” with the likes of Tony must answer for it if he wants to run for public office.
BTW Gowling and Cauchon’s dealings with the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT)don’t give the warm and fuzzies for him either.
In contrast, Mulcair a guy who stuck it to a crooked land developer in Laval when a wetland was destroyed without authorization and he’s the guy who got kicked out of Charest’s cabinet for sticking to his guns and refusing to sell Mont-Orford Park to Charest’s lawyer buddy. I suppose, if I’m shilling for anybody, it would be for him. He leaves no don’t that he’s EARNED the public’s confidence.
ck Reply:
January 4th, 2011 at 9:18 AM
Mulcair is nothing but an egotistical bully and a hardcore zionist. Nothing more. Heard him lately on the radio? He’s pretty dark. Try meeting some Quebec members of the NDP, he apparently doesn’t quite know the meaning of treating his own people right. Ask Jean-Claude Rocheleau, perhaps.
These days, he seems to be bending on corporate tax cuts with Harper, RE: upcoming budget.
I also seem to remember you hoping for a Harpercon majority. Yep, I’d say you’re a shillng for the Harpercons.
Since your big on proof.
Please justify you “hardcore zionist” claim.
I’m sure Jean-Claude Rocheleau said far worse things about Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois when he was a candidate for the NDP then he has about Mulcair and the NDP since changing over to the Bloc team. Either way, none of it seems likely to be very credible.
A quick google of “Mulcair” and “corporate tax cuts” takes one to the following article. I think you’ve got your facts wrong.
http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2010/12/30/16711541.html
Lawrence Martin seems to agree with you “sort of” about Mulcair’s character and style, but he seems to frame it positively.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/feeling-the-force-of-the-mulcair-effect/article1848673/
I have lamented in the past that a Harper Majority might be necessary to wake this country’s people up to evils of Stevie’s way. If ever I have given you the impression that I see anything redeeming in the ways, aspirations or vision of the Harpercons, I regret it. If you’ve understood from me that I believe that the Libs won’t be much better, cause they’re only hungry for power so that they can go back to their old ways of misusing it, then you’ve grasped my beliefs.
ck Reply:
January 4th, 2011 at 11:45 AM
Rocheleau has just signed on with the Bloc and will be running in La Pointe de L’Isle.
As soon as I can find that Murray Dobbin article where he takes part in that Zionist group, along with the GG, I will post it.
Also, research Catherine Pinhas, his wife.
ck Reply:
January 4th, 2011 at 11:55 AM
Like I said before, I’m not expecting greatness. In fact, I don’t ask for much; that would be greedy. All I ask is that this country doesn’t go to Steve’s far right, thus preventing a majority.
Come to think of it; google Murray Dobbin, (forget the title) meeting with Mulcair, GG, Harper, Milliken….etc….meeting regarding Israel and anti-semitism.
Let’s not forget how he publicly threw Libby Davies under the bus for that impromptu interview she had.
I have most certainly not grasped your beliefs. Every politician wants power. Quelle surprise. Is it a good enough reasons to entertain suffering a Harpercon majority? I think not.
And guess what? the NDP, to get more seats, tend to slam the Liberals but are not so critical of the Cons during campaigns.
http://www.walrusmagazine.com/articles/2006.05-politics-jack-layton-ndp-fake-left-go-right/
Curious, that Dobbin article: the guy is a journalist, yet he doesn’t quote Mulcair once in his article. So Mulcair attended a conference at the behest of his leader; so what? Particularly ironic that Dobbins seems more demonstrably guilty of a McCarthyism for condemning someone for attending a conference. Did Mulcair shake the wrong person’s hand?
And then you, bringing a politician’s spouse into an argument, yikes. Are you going to cast aspersions on the man’s sexual practices next? We are very progressive on this site, aren’t we?
Perhaps we should stick to things he’s done and said. Besides the fact that he beats up on his political opponents(DUH!!), is there anything he’s done to offend?
ck Reply:
January 4th, 2011 at 7:53 PM
Dig deeper. Seek and you shall find. ‘Nuff said.