What’s Happening In Outremont?

I had a suspicion lately that Martin Cauchon’s campaign in Outremont was in serious trouble. I see a few Mulcair lawn signs here, but none for Cauchon. I read the articles about the community in The Gazette and in other community papers and all will vote for Mulcair, although many of those people have said they are advocating strategic voting in other ridings that are in danger of going to the Harpercons and would vote Liberal if they lived somewhere else.  Small comfort for team Cauchon.

It’s bizarre, really. If we turn back the clock to 2008, when a former local actor, Sebastien Dhavernas, a rather weak candidate was running for the Liberals against Cauchon here,  anybody can see that  Mulcair’s vote count went down considerably from the time he took the 2007 by-election and he only beat Dhavernas by 2,343 votes.  Not a bad result for a light weight.  Because of the 2008 result and the fact that, unlike Dhavernas, Cauchon is a star; a Liberal heavy weight who held the riding for 11 years until the Paul Martin camp took over,  everyone, including myself, strongly believed this would be a hotly contested riding this time around.  According to what I’m hearing on the street, various articles I’ve read, a Twitter discussion I’ve been reading this morning and viewing Eric Grenier’s seat projections on 308.com, it seems that not only is Mulcair ahead, he’s about to beat Cauchon in a landslide. (Mulcair 45.9% and Cauchon 28.9%).

So what went wrong for Cauchon?  I can think of a few things.

There is the argument (and this appears to be true from what I’ve observed) is that the NDP has been throwing almost everything they have here in Outremont. Out of the Montreal NDP candidates, Mulcair was the first to have his signs put up. Before the first week of campaigning was up, he had four (including the generic sign pic of Jack Layton) different sign layouts dotting Outremont. The other candidates didn’t even have one up until the following week-end and then, only a few at that.  It could be the extra effort the NDP is putting behind Mulcair’s campaign.   Yes, the polls have indicated the NDP is going up in Quebec, but I’m still not seeing where those numbers would translate into seats. The Bloc Quebecois is bleeding votes to the Harpercons for the most part, not the NDP or the Liberals.

Another theory is that Quebecers like anyone else, will follow the winners.  The Liberals are tanking in Quebec. Perhaps if the Liberals had a decent showing in this province, Cauchon might have had a shot.  Right now, as mentioned above, it’s a contest between the Bloc and the Harpercons.  So, why vote in another Liberal if they won’t get anywhere here?   I suspect if Cauchon had run in 2008 instead of Dhavernas, he might have had a shot at taking Outremont then. It really appears that Iggy is even less popular than Stephane Dion, here.

Then again, perhaps Cauchon burned himself here for another reason.  Outremont has a large and prominent Chassidic community who used to vote Liberal, for the most part. Apparently, when Jean Lapierre  ran for Outremont, his handler was Chassidic, he told Andrew Carter on CJAD. In fact, he ran into this handler at the Harpercon rally, the former Liberal handler who will now support the Harpercons. Is this same person now Rodolphe Husny’s handler? Wouldn’t be surprised if he was.  While the Chassidic community only represents 8% of  Outremont’s eligible voters,  we have been seeing a trend. When the Liberals started hanging left, they had been taking votes from the NDP, but consequently, all those blue grits have been shifting their votes to the Harpercons.  Probably why Harpercons’ numbers remain stubbornly in majority territory, no matter how shaky his campaign is and how well Iggy’s is doing.   I believe that, like the rest of Canada, in Outremont, the Chassidic community and wealthy business people who once supported the Liberals are now shifting their votes to the Harpercons, although, at just over 8%,  Rodolphe Husny isn’t likely to make much of a factor here, other than to steal votes from the Liberals.

I also have to wonder if Cauchon’s part in bringing same sex marriage legislation has burned him with many around here? Not only the Chassidic Jews are intolerant of that, but there are others in the riding, such as certain ethnic groups, no doubt who have been targetted by Jason Kenney, one of Stevie’s close theocrats, promoting those old fashioned down home family values who would love to find a scapegoat in Cauchon for ‘ruining the family values’ of Canada.  I have been disillusioned with Canada over the years as I learn that Canada is not only the second most Conservative country after the US in the industrial world, but probably also one of the tops in social conservatism. How else does one explain Stevie Spiteful’s popularity?

Perhaps like Justin Trudeau, who’s name and brand have taken a beating in an increasingly right winged Canada, Martin Cauchon’s time is also off. Perhaps Sebastien Dhavernas or another nobody would’ve had a better shot this time around.