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My Prediction? We’re a Goin’ To Have an Early Snap Federal Election

Well boys n girls, I’m about to make another prediction.  I believe Stevie Spiteful is going to call an early snap election.   The election will likely be called sometime later this spring or early summer after the newly gerrymandered election map has been redrawn, complete with 30 more seats.  Here’s why.

1)  Sure the polls are down for ol’ Stevie while Justin Trudeau still enjoys high numbers. However, as we’ve seen in recent years, pollsters have been getting their numbers wrong. I don’t mean by just a tad, I mean really wrong. They predicted Alberta’s last election would put a Wildrose majority in power; turned out Allison Redford’s Progressive Conservatives got in with a comfortable majority. Chrissy Clark out in BC was expected to lose to an NDP majority, that, of course, did not happen.  The Parti-Quebecois here in La Belle Province was expected to have a majority despite Pauline Marois’s unpopularity. They barely eked out a minority, winning only 4 more seats than the disgraced Liberals did.  Of course, there was the last federal election in May, 2011 where no pollster expected Stevie to get a majority and he did. Remember boys n girls, I was one of the few who maintained for quite a few years that Stevie would get a majority, and well, we know the rest.

2) Sure the Liberals have been fundraising well, but Stevie still has his loyal white cranky old folks still donating.  It’s the fundraising numbers that count and Stevie still raises coin hand over fist.

3) Those newly redrawn electoral maps with the 30 extra seats. Everyone knows they’ve been set up to be advantageous for a Harpercon majority.  Most of the new seats will be in suburban Ontario, in the 905, Alberta and BC — provinces that traditionally vote more Cons than anyone else.

4) That new Unfair elections act — Bill C-23 .  As I’ve mentioned, it is designed to keep non -Harpercon voters away and bring in the Harpercon cranky white folks out in droves and donating.  Those Harpercons are ramming it through curtailing proper study and debate.  Sure that is what they do with all their bills, particularly their ridiculously monstrous omnibus bills, especially when they have something to hide. However, with this particular bill, one would think they could afford to take their time given another election is not supposed to be held until around spring, 2015 — about 18 months away. Why the big rush now?

5) The senate scandal–the scandal that just doesn’t quit.  Stevie still has a majority in the senate.  Even if he were reduced to a minority and boys n girls, another prediction, that is the best we are going to hope for, Stevie can still go to his henchmen in the senate every time the opposition out vote him on something.

Justin Trudeau pulled out a bomb shell over a week ago when he dismissed all Liberal senators from caucus.  Yes, it appears to have much approval if polls are to be believed. I, too, thought it was ballsy and like it.  Look at the optics, Stevie huffed and puffed of an elected senate with term limits since before he was first elected to office. He never did anything about it. It was all posturing.  Stevie only went to the Supreme Court to ask questions about either electing a senate or flat out abolishing it after his own senators like Porky Puffy Duffy, Patty, and Pammy and others were caught in spending scandals, taking 90,000$ “gifts” from what was said to be an “honourable” chief of staff, etc., etc.  He had ample opportunity to go before all this went down, but he didn’t and was the worst in the appointments he made.

Trudeau, on the other hand, a third party leader, did something and did something, dare I say  it, bold.  Isn’t that what retired politicians, pundits and other members of the chattering classes say politicians should do? “Do something bold…”  It speaks volumes.

However, there are problems. What about the long run?  For openers, Trudeau will have to find new campaigners and fundraisers and the like.  As well he should.  We’ve seen from Porky Puffy Duffy how well that double dipping went — claiming money from the senate as well as charging the party just to campaign for Stevie.  On the flip side, Senator David Smith didn’t exactly do a great job on Iggy’s campaign in 2011, so why would Trudeau use him anyway?  Senators should not be campaigning for parties.  I digress.  My point is should an election happen sooner rather than later, in 2015 when it was supposed to be, would he have time to find new handlers?  Stevie would surely know this and take advantage and pounce.

Questions will be asked by Stevie and to a smaller extent, Thomas Mulcair regarding something along the lines of , ok, you got rid of your senators, then what?  One thing we’ve seen is that Trudeau is not really great off the cuff.

Plus, as we’ve seen in the last election, many of Harper’s woes magically all but disappeared. If Stevie is back in, it just might well put senate gate to rest as well.

Stevie badly wants to continue his path of destruction.  Should he wait for an election in 2015 as originally scheduled,  he will continue to have scandals like the senate scandal continue to plague him. New ones would surely arise.

Plus there is the matter of the Auditor General’s report on the latest senate audit. Many are suggesting that Trudeau’s move to boot his senators out of caucus was nothing more than a cynical preemptive strike in anticipation of this report.

However, did anyone ever stop to wonder what further Harpercon senate dirt would be revealed?  According to a Post Media interview with Auditor General, Michael Ferguson, the final report wouldn’t be released before December of this year or even the first quarter of 2015 .  If that is the case, that would be too close to the targeted spring 2015 federal election.  Stevie’s chances for re election become problematic.  Sure, it could be problematic for the Liberals as well, but that could mean the opening Thomas Mulcair and the NDP would need to potentially surge to government.

6) Even if an election was still held in 2015, Mulcair and Trudeau barely have time to find suitable candidates across Canada to run in various ridings.  Imagine if an election were held this summer?  Finding candidates to run everywhere would be indeed problematic.  We’ve already seen that that 2 NDP MPs — Jean Crowder and Alex Atamanenko,  and Liberal Irwin Cotler will not be running in the next election. I wonder how many more there will be? There are plenty of older Liberals who may not want to run anymore — Stephane Dion who has been showing some disagreement over Trudeau’s latest senate move comes to mind.  For the NDP,  Olivia Chow is also likely to leave sooner rather than later. From what I’ve heard, she will most likely run for mayor of Toronto.  Perhaps even more Liberals and NDP era to not run next time. Just an illustration of how difficult it will be to nominate candidates sooner rather than later.

7) Ah, that policy that pundits and other commentators have whining about — where’s the Liberal beef? Where are Justin Trudeau’s policies? Even though he has dropped a few, they either whined about them or they ignored them. The Liberal policy convention will be held soon and a shopping list has been released on the Liberal website .  They will have to be voted on at the upcoming convention, of course, and after that, a newly revised shopping list red book will have to be composed.  Can they do it this quickly?

As for the NDP, here is their policy book .  It is dated April of last year. They may need to tweak it to reflect the most recent developments. Again, do they have time.  How much of that last policy book do they want to keep and how much do they want to scrap?

Both parties will have to find their ballot question. Stevie will already have his —  Deficit Jimbo Flaherty’s mantra — the economy.  Specifically, that the budget will be balanced with surpluses next year. We all know by now that those Harpercons are anything but great with the economy, but sadly, neither the NDP nor the Liberals have been able to knock Stevie and Jimbo off that pedestal.  Yes there is plenty of data and enough written, even by right leaning publications , to prove that Stevie and Jimbo are anything but great with the economy, but the Liberals and NDP will have to find bumper sticker slogans. Slick ads to disprove Stevie’s claim.  Until that happens,  many will still be in that brainwashed slumber.  If any are interested in reading further, some complete with those cute little graphs and such, here are a few here , here , and from a right leaning publication, The Economist (please note that the last paragraph of that article is questionable, but anyway…). Approximately 46,000 jobs were lost in December .  Opposition parties Liberals and NDP will have to do better in exposing the whole Stevie the economist myth.

In addition to knocking Stevie off his pedestal and script, they need to come up with their own ballot question. What will it be? Mulcair will surely keep up the abolish the senate mantra and how we must not be afraid to re open the constitution. While I agree with this, it does not make for a good bumper sticker slogan.

What will Trudeau’s be?  Odds are, it won’t be clear  soon enough.

8) The centre — centre left are still very much divided. Perhaps more than before.  We’ve seen what happens. It will once again, end up a fight for the keys to Stornoway while Stevie slithers up the middle.

9) Stevie had taken his magical mystery tour to Israel with over 200 of his friends; business people, rabbis, Zionists,  and of course, Evagelical Christian wing nuts, earlier than usual.  More than anything else,  it looks like a campaign kick-off than anything else.

10) The budget is being released earlier than usual. Instead of  in mid-March when the budget is usually handed down, it will be sometime next week. What’s the hurry?

11) Stevie has one dragon to slay. His name is Trudeau. It’s no secret that Stevie has an obsessive unhealthy hatred of all things Trudeau. Hell, even Papa Trudeau’s old riding of Mount-Royal (Irwin Cotler’s current riding), has mysteriously remained as is after all that electoral map redrawing. Ever wonder why that would be?  He not only wants to beat a Trudeau and sooner rather than later, but he still covets Mount-Royal.  Watch for Stevie and his friends court Robert Libman (who was their first choice, by the by, over the disgraced Saulie Zajdel) with an offer he can’t refuse.

In 2015, the Liberals could well have all their gear in order and election ready. Not a chance ol’ Stevie would want to take.  He would want to strike now while the iron is hot.

12) As for the NDP, well, anything can happen. By the time 2015 arrives, Mulcair could gain traction.  At this time, I don’t believe this is likely, but we’ll see.  Right now, again, if polls are to be believed, he and his party are in third place.  Again, another reason for Stevie to believe his electoral fortunes would come right now.

I’m sure there will be more events and bills being rammed through sooner rather than later and more hints that an early snap election will come up during the rest of winter / early spring.

Boys n girls, there you have it. Another CK prediction.

I hope groups like Catch 22, Swing 33 and the like will spring into action soon.  We have work to do.

1 comment to My Prediction? We’re a Goin’ To Have an Early Snap Federal Election

  • SD

    It’s a very good analysis of a possible early election. While the Conservative Party is weak in the polls, it is still strong organizationally. The opposite is generally true for the NDP and Liberals. The NDP has a strong leader. However, the party still needs time to build up its campaign team across the country. Justin Trudeau needs to like a leader ready to govern.

    Generally in the federal election campaigns, Harper has done well to reach enough voters by talking about micro-economic needs for families–lower taxes, tax credits for childcare, sports tax credits for children, and so on. He reaches out to voters’ Maslow’s hierarchy of needs by touching on the basic needs. Other parties tend to focus on higher needs such as having a clean environment and this pie-in-the sky thing called “universal health care.” If I am poor, I am going to support someone who can supposedly help me save a buck-or-two immediately. That is Stephen Harper. Clean environments cost money out of a poor pay cheque even though in the long run, the benefits will likely outweigh the costs.

    The Conservatives will be ready for a day-after Labour Day election. Conservative supporters will be at their summer cottages and other resort places where the nasty opposition won’t be able to sway them. Harper will be able to campaign in the swing ridings where the poor saps without a second summer residence will be pounded with Harper-steria.

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