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The celebration of the NDP partisans of poll surges of their precious Jack Layton in Quebec. For what, pray tell? It’s not translating to anymore than two (Mulcair and Gatineau’s Francoise Boivin) seats according to 308.com and electionprediction.org, fifteen Quebec ridings are touted as ‘too close to call’. They are: Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le-Ber, Brossard-Laprairie, St-Lambert, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Brome-Missisquoi, Richmond-Arthabaska, Beauport-Limoilou, Louis-Hebert, Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, Levis-Bellechasse, Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup, Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia, Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, Roberval-Lac-St-Jean. The ridings indicated in blue are currently held by the Harpercons; some were targetted by Catch 22, even. The Bloc Quebecois stood a good chance of taking the Quebec City Harpercon held ridings until the NDP poll surge. Now, the Harpercons are projected to hold those seats.
The same could be argued for Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, where, by the way, an absentee MP doesn’t seem to bother the constituants all that much, Andre Arthur is now projected to hold on to his riding while continuing his Klan like activities and driving a bus. True, Arthur is not a Harpercon in name, but when he does show up to vote, he always votes with them, so we can consider him one of them.
As for the other Quebec seats declared ‘too close to call that are Bloc held, there is a slim possibility that only one, Jeanne-Le-Ber could go the NDP’s Tyrone Benskin and that’s a big if. In this case, we see the NDP eating away at both the Liberal and the Bloc incumbent, Thierry St-Cyr.
In fact, I’d say the NDP is eating away at both the Bloc and the Liberal votes in La Belle Province in many ridings which, in many cases, will only help the Harpercons. As a result, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few Harpercon gains in La Belle Province due to massive vote splitting. Those would be in Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Louis-Hebert, Richmond-Arthabaska and Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou.
According to Election Prediction Project, there are 61 ridings that are too close to call in all of Canada; many of which can easily turn Harpercon due to vote splitting. Certainly enough to give Steve that coveted majority. One can twist around how over 60% of Canadians never did or are not voting for Harpercons as much as they like. At the end of the day, Stevie still gets his majority and he finishes turning Canada into his neo-con theocratic utopia.
In Ontario, it looks like the NDP are still a distant third for Ontario. Nik Nanos is now saying that the Harpercons’ significant lead in Ontario could well get the Harpercons their coveted majority. Remember, folks, in the case of Stevie, a majority is a majority, it doesn’t matter by how many seats.
“Talk about Jack Layton in Stornoway has actually helped the Conservatives in Ontario,” Mr. Nanos said Monday. “The Conservatives best chance to win a majority is in Ontario. If their numbers hold or start ramping up in Ontario that could be good news for the Conservatives. One of the scenarios that we could be looking at now is a squeaker of a majority government.”
Other pollsters and pundits have been saying pretty much the same thing; the idea of the NDP in official opposition would mean total collapse of the Liberals and the Bloc, which would mean a Harpercon majority.
Hell, when uber-right columnists like Lorne Gunter, who practically see ‘soshalists’ under his bed and hyper-Harper partisans like Timmy Powers cheering for the surge of Jack, shouldn’t that sound alarm bells to those ABC voters? Think about it, uber Conservative, Liberal hating, soshalist fearing, pundits/columnists cheering for the so-called ‘soshalist’. That’s because Jack is not even a threat to Stevie’s majority the way the Liberals were. Up until last week, as unpopular as Iggy was, he and the Liberals, at the very least, had a chance of preventing a precious Harpercon majority, particularly with the Bloc leading in Quebec and yes, with the help of the NDP in certain ridings in western and northern Canada. With a potential Liberal and Bloc collapse, there is no way the NDP alone can prevent a Harpercon majority.
Remember Gerry Nicholls’ article, telling us of Steve’s goal of annihilating the Liberals?
His theory, as explained to me, was that conservatism would be better served in this country if Canada had a two-party system, one that pitted right against left, free enterprise against socialism, Conservatives against New Democrats.
He believed that, in such a polarized political environment, a conservative-oriented party would have a huge advantage over its left-wing rival. When given a clear choice, voters will usually pick conservatism over socialism.
Again, further evidence that the NDP has never been, nor will it ever be a threat to Stevie Spiteful’s goals.
We also know that Steve and his base would like the Bloc to disappear. Of course they would! They too, were a deterrent to that majority.
Back to the idea of cheering for a Layton official opposition, as mentioned above, mathematically, that means a Harper majority. When that happens, it won’t matter who’s in official oppposition, they’ll be nothing more than window dressing; people who take up seats in the House of Commons. Parliament and government will Stevie Spiteful’s playground to do with as he pleases and there won’t be a damned thing anyone can do about it.
Then again, perhaps preventing a Harpercon majority isn’t Jack Layton’s plan; perhaps it never was.
But it was what Layton did not say that evening that was more interesting. He did not mention that the most ideologically right-wing prime minister in Canadian history was about to be sworn into office, and he did not mention that while the ndp’s 2006 election result was impressive, the party no longer held the same sway in Parliament.
When Jack gets more seats or even achieves official opposition status, I suspect history will repeat itself, and he will find himself with even less powers than he did in 2004 and even in 2006, as mentioned above. Read the rest of this article from 2006 here, it is very pertinent today.
Yes, if and when Stevie gets his majority as all are predicting, I too, will be blaming Jack, as he started this pissing contest by steering his campaign to attack Iggy and not Steve. In fact, since the debates, the only NDP ads I’ve seen on TV are those attacking Iggy, not Steve. If only the three opposition parties could’ve fought one common enemy: Stevie Spiteful.
I still say vote for the candidate most likely to beat the Harpercon in your riding. Strategic voting still very much applies here.
Excellent work CK! Excellent, indeed.
ck Reply:
April 25th, 2011 at 6:26 PM
Thanks Dylan, I expect to have a lot of folks angry with me for this, but it needed to be said.
Strategic Voting Link-Fest.
ck Reply:
April 25th, 2011 at 6:28 PM
Thank You Fern, You and De Beaux Os have been doing a fabulous job of keeping us posted with the news of the strategic voting sites. I know you’ve been getting a lot of flack lately. I, for one, appreciate your efforts.
I confess I’ve always liked jack Layton. But if he becomes the Ralph Nader of Canadian politics, he’s going to make a lot of enemies.
ck Reply:
April 25th, 2011 at 7:43 PM
That’s just it, Owen, as of now, Layton is becoming the Ralph Nader of Canadian politics. If I thought for one moment his party was strong enough to beat Harper, alone or with minimal help from the Liberals and/or the Bloc, there wouldn’t be as much to worry about. And if Jack Layton had focussed his attacks on Stevie Harper instead of the Liberal leader of any given election campaign, I might have more respect for him. But as it is, I have only distrust for him. That said, as I’ve mentioned, if the NDP candidate in your riding has the best chances of beating the Harpercon, then by all means, vote for him or her. As I’ve mentioned in my post, I advocate for strategic voting as none of the parties are strong enough to even keep Stevie at a minority.
Scotian Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 2:57 AM
And this comment (although I’ve seen him as a Nader since the fall of Martin’s government in the 2006 campaign myself) shows again why I have such contempt for Layton, have blamed him for being a key figure in the rise of Harper to the PMO, and why I am furious with Dipper partisans who cannot seem to see the ugly truth that Jack is out for Jack first last and always, not principles, not democracy, and most especially not stopping Harper, the most right wing extremist leader of any federal party let alone sitting government in our entire history! Especially a leader whose entire adult political life telegraphed that he would govern as he has at the very least, and with a majority would almost certainly have governed even more anti-Canadian let alone anti-progressive in direction!
Dippers have it in for me for not letting go of speaking the truth about how Layton was more interested in defeating Liberals in 2006 than he was in stopping Harper, even at the expense of not just national childcare finally getting going (and to be fair this was still at the beginning unlike my next point which was at the end of a years long process) but the rejection of the Kelowna Accords a national Aboriginal strategy which had been worked out with all the Provinces signed onto as well as the Martin government which was one of the very first things repudiated by the incoming Harper government, really progressive there Jackie boy and entirely forseeable!
They also want to forget how it is generally the NDP which START the negative attacks on the Libs in elections (as we say yet again this cycle both in the debates and the national NDP ad buys versus the Libs staying focused on Harper in their ad buys) while claiming they are different, their party is different and Jack is different. Well, when I look at Jack Layton I see Harper in this specific sense, both men place gaining/holding power at the center of their being and will do whatever it takes to get/keep them there, expediency before principles. I will freely admit that Layton wants to build something at least somewhat in line with the hopes of many to most Canadians (even if I think he will do so in an irresponsible and reckless manner, and has not been honest with how he would truly do the nuts and bolts) while Harper wants to destroy the core infrastructures in the Canadian social safety nets, the core equal rights and justice institutions and the core economic federal powers which allow/permit national projects with progressive aims in mind such as medicare and child care and on that basis a Layton government would be a preferable option to more Harper. In that way someone whose focus is to destroy (Harper) is going to be more destructive by far than someone whose heart may be in the right place but his execution is less than shall we say reality based in the end (Layton).
I am hoping in the end we see a much higher than normal turnout which throws all the polls out and provides us with a strong Lib minority, a decent sized NDP to be junior partners for the Libs, and a very weakened CPC which will turn on Harper, remove his leadership (assuming he doesn’t quit yet again as he usually has when things haven’t gone his way in the past) and hopefully transform the CPC into something much closer to the old PCPC in nature than the extremist party it has been under Harper since it’s birth in treachery and deceit. More than anything else though I pray that a strong turnout is a repudiation of Harper however that result shakes out, because we KNOW that most Canadians disagree with him and his ideals, and that the base of his vote is limited and needs surpressed turnout to have as much an impact as it has in the past couple elections (well that and massive disgust with it’s main electoral rival, the Libs in 2006 and with the Dion fiasco in 2008)
I want to see the Libs regain power currently not because of partisan affiliation, but because for all their warts of which they have many they still tend to be the most centrist pragmatic party out there, and especially after what we have had from Harper we need that sort of solid centrist thinking in government again to undo the worst of the damage and hopefully start rebuilding what he already was able to weaken/destroy with those minorities (because while I would love to see some significant changes brought to our system of electing and governing ourselves I am not sure there is the national willingness to have that discussion seriously, and to try and make those changes without such a serious discourse with an engaged public will only make matters worse I suspect). I honestly don’t think Layton and his party senior leadership (which matters in Parliamentary governments with cabinets after all, something the Harper approach has undercut and in his case been dismissed with a corresponding incompetent government as a result) have the backgrounds, the stomachs, and the ability to restrain their own overreaching/grasping in what would be their first taste of true/real power to do so responsibly and may in turn do much more damage than good in the process.
This is not the time to take such chances in my mind, which has always been part of my problem with the Layton led NDP and those that are as mindlessly partisan in supporting it as I have with the mindless CPC partisans that refuse to see Harper has no resemblance to the so called clean cut government he promised going into the 2006 elections. For all their faults I find more Lib partisans are at least open minded to the need to deal with Harper first, something I find supported by how many openly Lib bloggers are actually willing to see the NDP surge as a possible good thing even at the expense of their own party IF it actually puts Harper out of office/power. I have not seen anywhere near the same degree of flexibility from Dipper partisans for the past five years, no not at all, which is why I still tend to be more supportive of the Libs even with a leader I have never liked than Jack Layton a man whose feel to me has always been that of a second hand car dealer telling me about how great his deals are compared to everyone elses.
Anyways, thanks for this post ck, it is nice to see some sanity left out there on this topic. If I *knew* that the NDP surge would further reduce a Harper government from returning to power, let alone with a majority then I would be more than willing to cheer it on even given my issues with Layton and his party, but I don’t, and indeed have more than a little reason to worry that it will instead end up helping Harper more than hurt him. Which in turn has not exactly been an unknown point since before the election, which in turn underscores yet again why it is really hypocritical for any Layton Dipper to claim they are more concerned with stopping Harper than anyone else, because the reality is and has been since Layton came to power that the Liberals are always the primary target of concern because they are their electoral rivals regardless of whoever is on the right, even when it is a man like Harper. Which in turn is why IMHO Layton deserves to govern even less than Ignatief, a man that spent most of his adult life outside the country and came back in a rather opportunistic looking manner to try to take top spot as he did, at least his approach is more honest for all it’s less than savoury taste to it IMHO.
Ah well, the most important thing is stopping Harper and undoing the damage he has done to our democracy and our way of doing politics (although I fear that part may not be possible, he was too successful with it for too long for others not to have decided these tools are useable, and I fear our political culture has been permanently poisoned/damaged by it, which was one of my arguments back in 2006 for not removing Martin despite the problems with the Libs at the time, *SIGH*). I will be happy to see that outcome even if it means a Layton PMO under a Lib junior partnership, I may be critical of Layton and not willing to let him and h is party rewrite their history to make them out to be better than they truly are, but that doesn’t mean I think they come even close to being the danger in power Harper has already proven himself to be. Even when one considers that both Layton and Harper are power hungry expediency first politicos, what they each want that power for aside from their own grandizement is so far different enough to make it clear enough the reality of a Layton government being far less harmful overall despite the many real problems we would see from it.
Sorry ck, I know I’ve vented here yet again on this topic, but you are one of the only voices actually appearing to see that this may well be disastrous in the end and not something to be already cheering on. Indeed, one of the core reasons I so question Layton’s overall competence/judgment is how he has handled the rise of Harper to power to date. This is though a real worry for me, and I pray we don’t get the worst case scenario playing out out this time, last election was too close for comfort as it was thanks to that interference by Duffy pulling that raw footage of the Dion interview and smearing it across the airwaves right before the vote happened. Let us hope the optimists are right this time out, but experience has taught me to expect the worst, not the best, outcomes in life, ESPECIALLY in politics!
Besides, I tend to distrust ideologues of any persuasion, which is another reason I used to swing between PCPC and Lib with the occasional NDP vote thrown in because of a local candidate or national issue making it worth it to me, I WANT those governing me to be flexible in their thinking and not hidebound by dogma and ideology, I want those that will see reality as it is and use what works without concern as to whether it is right left center or purple polkadot in origin. This didn’t used to be seen as a bad way to be in this country, and I am hoping that the silent majority that usually doesn’t get involved that much in politics rises up this time and reminds all politicos that this has generally been the preference of the Canadian citizenry. That’s MY dream. We shall see.
You know what’s funny, ck? The people ragging on us now will be very grateful when this works.
ck Reply:
April 25th, 2011 at 7:37 PM
Yes I know, Fern. I just hope enough folks will vote strategically come May 2. Again, thanks for all your efforts
Yes, I agree a two-party system would be of great benefit to the Conservatives. At least at this point in history.
I was looking at those election prediction forecasts last night and most hadn’t been updated since 09. Don’t know if they changed anything today.
ck Reply:
April 25th, 2011 at 7:38 PM
The actual ridings have been updated as of yesterday. Many have been commenting on many of the riding pages lately.
Scientific polls trup electionprediction.org
40% of Montreal area residents will be voting NDP. That is more than 2 ridings…
ck Reply:
April 25th, 2011 at 11:32 PM
Two words; vote splitting.
I live in Montreal. I have lived in pretty much every part of the island. Only one distant possibility of a third Montreal seat–Jeanne-Le-Ber, and it’s a distant one at that–not even sure if Benskin speaks French. That would be important in a riding like JLB.
In Mount-Royal, could help the obnoxious Con Saulie Zajdel squeak ahead of Irwin Cotler, but that’s a distant chance.
Most of east Montreal is hardcore separatist, can’t pry them so easily from the Bloc.
West-Island? Yacht and country club WASPs; they’ll stick with Liberals for the time being until a con comes by that’ll promise them the moon on Anglo rights. Larry Smith came close, but he stuck his foot in his mouth too many times.
Westmount-Ville-Marie? If high profile former CBC broadcaster Anne Lagace-Dowson couldn’t win it for the NDP, how will Joanne Corbeil? By all accounts, Ms Dowson was a far stronger candidate. Besides, that old money in Westmount and the business folk of upper Downtown? They votes Liberal.
NDG-Lachine? Not possible; covers West Lachine and Dorval and Montreal West as well as some well to do NDG neighbourhoods, they’ll stick with Jennings.
Off the island of Montreal, in Rural Quebec, however, vote splitting will be very advantageous for the Cons.
You’re right, I meant to say the predictions hadn’t been updated on most of them since ’09. So would be little if any correlation between the NDP surge and these predictions. Very tough trying to get a feel. Project Democracy shows 8 Saskatoon and Regina ridings have a good chance of going Lib or NDP especially with strategic voting. But the Ekos seat projections don’t even give the NDP a single seat in Sask, out of 100 overall!